[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 301248
SWODY1
SPC AC 301245

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 AM CDT MON AUG 30 2004

VALID 301300Z - 311200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE
PSM 40 SSW ALB 35 SSW UCA 35 SE ART 10 NE HUL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW 7R4 50 NW MEI
25 NE BWG 25 ENE ERI ...CONT... 30 W INL 15 S STC 40 E YKN 35 E OLU
15 E STJ 30 S OJC 25 S END 30 NW SPS 40 W BWD 20 SSW AUS 15 WSW GLS
...CONT... 20 SSW FHU 50 W GUP 25 SSW ASE 35 NNE CYS 55 SSE 81V 30 E
4BQ 30 NNE MLS 55 WSW GGW 65 ENE CTB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND...

...SYNOPSIS...
SWRN U.S. RIDGE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO EXPAND NEWD THIS PERIOD...WHILE
STRONGER BELT OF FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF THE CONUS. 
WITHIN THIS BELT OF FLOW...SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NOW CROSSING WRN
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO TAKE ON A MORE
NEGATIVE TILT WITH TIME AS IT SWINGS NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES /
ONTARIO INTO WRN QUEBEC BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE
REMNANTS OF GASTON -- NOW A T.D. OVER CENTRAL NC -- WILL CONTINUE
MOVING NEWD ACROSS NC AND INTO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON / EVENING.  FOR MORE INFORMATION ON T.D. GASTON...PLEASE
SEE THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM HPC ON THIS SYSTEM.

THE ONLY OTHER SURFACE FEATURE OF INTEREST THIS PERIOD WILL BE A
WEAK BOUNDARY WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NWRN WI SWWD INTO WRN KS
/ ERN CO.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS NEWD...WHILE BOUNDARY SHOULD LINGER
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND...
THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS WRN AND CENTRAL NY ATTM SHOULD CONTINUE
/ SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS
MARGINAL AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS ALONG AND AHEAD OF WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION.

WITH MODERATE / GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD FORECAST...SOME
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STORMS TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON.
 LIMITED INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS -- PARTICULARLY IF ONE OR TWO SMALL-SCALE BOWS CAN
EVOLVE.  THREAT SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH DIURNAL
COOLING / LOW-LEVEL STABILIZATION.

...MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER PERSISTS WITH T.D. GASTON...JUST S
OF RDU ATTM.  LATEST RAX /RALEIGH NC/ VWP INDICATES 25 TO 35 KT
LOW-LEVEL FLOW NEAR THE CENTER OF GASTON AFFECTING A FAIRLY SMALL
AREA AROUND THE CENTER.  

AS GASTON MOVES NEWD...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION / CLOUD COVER WILL
SPREAD INTO SERN VA.  WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES AND LITTLE
HEATING...EXPECT MARGINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. 
HOWEVER...VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUGGEST
THAT AN ISOLATED / BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE.

...CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...
AIRMASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS IS FORECAST TO
DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON AS MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BUT FAIRLY
STEEP LOW- TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO
YIELD AROUND 500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE ACROSS ERN CO / NERN NM AND AS
MUCH AS 1000 TO 2000 J/KG INTO WRN KS / THE TX AND OK PANHANDLE
REGION.  

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF S CENTRAL KS / WRN OK /
NWRN TX ATTM.  ALTHOUGH STORMS SHOULD DECREASE AS LOW-LEVEL JET AND
ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION DIURNALLY WEAKENS...NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WITH WEAK /GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KT/ MID-LEVEL FLOW FORECAST ACROSS
THIS REGION...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN DISORGANIZED.  THEREFORE...ONLY A
LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT FOR HAIL / GUSTY WINDS IS FORECAST WITH A
COUPLE STRONGER STORM PULSES.

..GOSS/BANACOS.. 08/30/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.