[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 300052
SWODY1
SPC AC 300048

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 PM CDT SUN AUG 29 2004

VALID 300100Z - 301200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW
GCK 35 N RSL 35 WSW CNK 35 SE RSL 40 S DDC 40 WSW GCK 35 NNW GCK.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE
INL 60 ESE BRD 25 SSW MSP 35 NE OTG 50 NE BKX 20 WNW RRT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE
CRE 40 SW SOP 30 N SOP 50 ESE LYH 15 ENE ORF.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E
ITH 25 NNE BML 35 NNW AUG 30 N PWM 20 WNW CON 30 NNW MSV 20 E ITH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW HYA 30 NNW EWR
35 W ILG 25 S NHK WAL ...CONT... 20 NNW MQT 25 W GRB 45 W CID 25 NW
TOP 25 SW P28 25 SE LTS 40 S SPS 25 NE SEP 15 ENE ACT 30 NW LFK 15
WSW JAN 15 SW UOX 25 SSE OWB 25 SSW DAY 35 W CLE ...CONT... 30 WSW
FHU SAD 40 SW FMN 60 WNW ALS 25 S LHX 55 N LAA 15 S BUB 30 SSE MHE
15 N ABR 75 NNW DVL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MN...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER WRN KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NERN
STATES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN NC...

...MN...
BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS IS IN PROGRESS
THIS EVENING ALONG PRESSURE TROUGH FROM E OF TVF TO NW OF AXN. A
MORE ISOLATED CELL HAD ALSO RECENTLY DEVELOPED FARTHER TO THE E SW
OF BRD. PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS REMAINS WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE 
WITH MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG. THOUGH INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED...WIND SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN BY 04Z AS AIRMASS
STABILIZES.

...NERN STATES...
00Z ALBANY SOUNDING INDICATES THAT AIRMASS ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY
INTO CNTRL NEW ENGLAND REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF
AROUND 2000 J/KG. MOREOVER...CORRESPONDING WIND PROFILE SHOWED
MODESTLY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY WIND FIELDS THROUGH THE LOWEST
6KM. POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH 02 OR 03Z ALONG SRN EDGE OF CONVECTIVE BAND
CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM S-CNTRL NY NEWD INTO CNTRL NH/VT.

...CAROLINAS...
RUC DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS AND ERN NC VWP DATA INDICATE REGION OF
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /0-1KM SRH OF 100-200 M2/S2/ TO THE N OF
GASTON CIRCULATION. THOUGH AIRMASS REMAINS WEAKLY UNSTABLE WITH
MLCAPES OF 500-700 J/KG...MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER AND DISTRIBUTION OF
BUOYANCY THROUGH THAT PORTION OF PROFILE EXHIBITING STRONGER SHEAR
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO OVERNIGHT.

...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
RATHER STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE LARGELY CONTRIBUTED
TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG/ THIS
EVENING FROM ERN NM/WRN TX NWD/NEWD INTO WRN KS. SYNOPTIC FRONT
/EXTENDING FROM S-CNTRL NEB INTO NERN NM/ HAS FOCUSED A CLUSTER OF
STRONG TSTMS OVER PARTS OF N-CNTRL INTO WRN KS WITH MORE SCATTERED
DEVELOPMENT FARTHER SW ACROSS THE TX PNHDL INTO ERN NM. GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS THROUGH 03 OR 04Z
APPEARS TO BE ACROSS WRN KS WHERE REGIONAL VWPS/00Z DDC SOUNDING
INDICATE A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40KTS. SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH THEREAFTER WITH COOLING/STABILIZATION
OF BOUNDARY LAYER.

..MEAD.. 08/30/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.