[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 292005
SWODY1
SPC AC 292002

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 PM CDT SUN AUG 29 2004

VALID 292000Z - 301200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E
RRT 30 SSW BRD 35 WSW RWF 10 WSW BKX 40 NNE ABR 75 N DVL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW
CRE 40 WSW FLO 50 ESE CLT DAN 25 NNE ECG.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W
3B1 35 ESE MWN 30 S CON PSF CXY 25 N AOO 10 N JHW 20 NW ROC.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CAO
GCK DDC 35 NW PVW CVS 55 SSE LVS CAO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW FHU 30 SSE SOW
40 SW FMN 60 WNW ALS 35 NE TAD 40 WNW GLD 30 WNW BUB 20 WSW HON 45
NE MBG 55 N MOT ...CONT... 20 NNW MQT 25 W GRB 45 W CID 25 NW TOP 25
SW P28 25 SE LTS 40 S SPS 25 NE SEP 15 ENE ACT 30 NW LFK 10 NE JAN
35 SW MEM 40 ESE POF 25 SSW DAY 35 W CLE ...CONT... 25 NW HYA 30 NNW
EWR 35 W ILG 25 S NHK WAL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL PA/NY ACROSS
VT/NH...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN ND/NERN SD AND
WESTERN MN...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NM/TX/OK
PANHANDLE INTO KS...

...NY/PA/VT/NH...
LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 35-50 KT SWLY
MID-LEVEL JET OVER SRN ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND IN ADVANCE OF A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...NOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA/NY
INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.  THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH WHICH EXTENDED FROM WRN NY SWWD TO
WV AT 19Z.  ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MODEST AT BEST ACROSS MUCH
OF THIS REGION...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE THREAT FOR LINE
SEGMENTS PRODUCING PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS.

OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS TO STABILIZE THE AIR MASS.  

...NC/SC...
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS COMBINED WITH ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
VALUES IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF T.S. GASTON WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS NERN SC/ERN NC...AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES NWD.

...ND/SD/MN...
WV IMAGERY INDICATED A WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE WAKE OF A
STRONGER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SRN MANITOBA AND MN.  COLD
MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH /-16 TO -18 C AT 500 MB/ ACROSS ND COMBINED
WITH ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING AND A NARROW AXIS OF AROUND 60 F
SURFACE DEWPOINTS RETURNING NWD ALONG THE MN/DAKOTAS BORDER SHOULD
RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG.  

BROKEN LINE OF CU/MODERATE CU HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AN EWD MOVING
SURFACE TROUGH OVER NERN SD/ERN ND...WITH CBS OVER FAR NERN ND. 
ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK ACROSS THIS REGION...
FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE TROUGH...BUT STORM ORGANIZATION MAY BE MINIMAL.  STRONGEST
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS. 

DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONGER OVER SWRN MN AND MAY SUPPORT A FEW
ORGANIZED STORMS WITHIN WAA CONVECTION OVER THIS AREA.

...KS/TX/OK PANHANDLE/NM...
VIS IMAGERY SHOWS CU DEVELOPING ALONG A DRY LINE FROM NWRN KS TO THE
WRN OK PANHANDLE INTO NERN NM...WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CENTRAL/SRN NM.  MODERATE INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED FROM
WRN KS SWWD ACROSS WRN TX INTO MUCH OF NM.  HOWEVER...WEAK DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL TEND TO SUPPORT PULSE-TYPE STORMS WITH ANY
ADDITIONAL STORMS THAT DEVELOP INTO THE EVENING.  18Z RUC CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A TREND FOR ORGANIZED STORMS BY 00Z ACROSS PARTS OF WRN
KS TO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AND NERN NM AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR
INCREASES.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS.

..PETERS.. 08/29/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.