[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 280545
SWODY1
SPC AC 280541

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1241 AM CDT SAT AUG 28 2004

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE DUG 45 NE GUP
GUC 35 SSE 4FC 25 NW LIC 35 SSE LIC 40 NNE CAO 35 NNE AMA 35 SE GAG
25 NNW PNC 10 N EMP 25 E FNB 20 S DBQ 45 NW MKG 15 SSW OSC
...CONT... 20 ENE HYA 10 N JFK 25 WSW DCA 30 NE LYH 30 SW GSO 25 E
FAY 40 SE ECG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RRT 30 N OTG 35 NE
SUX 15 SW YKN 35 SSE 9V9 10 ENE PIR 15 SSE Y22 30 N MLS 55 WSW HVR
40 NW CTB.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...OH VALLEY...

LONG WAVE TROUGH OBSERVED OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE
MS VALLEY REGION INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD.  THIS
FEATURE WILL DO LITTLE MORE THAN AID THE EWD ADVANCEMENT OF SFC
BOUNDARY AND OVERALL PRECIPITATION SHIELD.

EARLY THIS MORNING...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
MID MS VALLEY...EWD ACROSS NRN IL INTO NRN IND.  THIS ACTIVITY IS
OVERTURNING MUCH OF THE REMAINING PLUME OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES THAT
HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY.  DOWNSTREAM...00Z
SOUNDINGS FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO NY DISPLAYED MARGINAL LAPSE RATES
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER...ROUGHLY 5.5-6C/KM.

IN THE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER SHEAR...IT APPEARS BOUNDARY
LAYER HEATING AND RESULTANT AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN FOR POTENTIALLY STRONG UPDRAFTS SATURDAY.  00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE AND UPPER AIR DATA SUGGEST THIS WILL PROVE
DIFFICULT...ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS QUITE MOIST.  EARLY
MORNING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL
LIMIT HEATING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NRN OH VALLEY REGION...WITH
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SUNSHINE/STRONG STORMS ALONG THE OH
RIVER. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS OR PERHAPS SOME HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGEST STORMS BUT OVERALL COVERAGE DOES NOT WARRANT A SLIGHT
RISK AT THIS TIME.

...TX...

BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL PROVE SIGNIFICANT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SWRN TX AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.  THIS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY AID CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG WIND SHIFT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. 
HOWEVER...VERY WEAK FLOW THROUGH MID LEVELS WILL NOT SUPPORT
ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

..DARROW/BANACOS.. 08/28/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.