[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 290504
SWODY1
SPC AC 290501

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1201 AM CDT SUN AUG 29 2004

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E
INL 40 SW DLH 25 NE MKT 20 E OTG 20 ESE BKX 75 NNW GFK.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE
PSM 20 NNW PSF 45 NNE MSV ELM 30 SE BUF 65 N ROC.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E
SAV 45 E AGS 35 W FLO 35 NE FLO 25 ENE ILM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W 3B1 30 SSW BHB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW MQT 25 W GRB
45 W CID 25 NW TOP 25 SW P28 20 SE LTS 10 ESE FTW 30 NNE GGG 40 SW
PBF 20 E POF 40 E LAF 25 NE MTC ...CONT... 20 SW JFK 15 SSW ABE 35 W
ILG 25 S NHK 40 SSW WAL ...CONT... 30 WSW FHU 30 SSE SOW 40 SW FMN
35 W ALS 20 ENE TAD 40 WNW GLD 30 WNW BUB 20 WSW HON 30 NNW MBG 70
NW MOT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NERN
STATES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN SC/SERN NC...

...NY AND NRN/CNTRL NEW ENGLAND...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IS
FORECAST TO TRANSLATE NEWD ACROSS SERN ONTARIO AND INTO QUEBEC LATER
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS FEATURE /I.E. SURFACE
LOW NOW SW OF LAKE ERIE/ WILL DEVELOP NEWD ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE
FROM LAKE ONTARIO ALONG THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.

AT LEAST A FEW STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS SHOULD BE ONGOING INITIALLY
ALONG BOUNDARY AND AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW AT THE ONSET OF THE
FORECAST. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS/LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD TEND
LIMIT LAPSE RATES AND SLOW THE DESTABILIZATION PROCESS IMMEDIATELY S
OF FRONT AND AHEAD OF MIGRATORY SURFACE CYCLONE. HOWEVER...INFLUX OF
MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF MODERATE AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY WHERE MLCAPES MAY APPROACH 1000-1500 J/KG. EXPECT A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY BY AFTERNOON ACROSS
PARTS OF UPSTATE NY NEWD INTO NRN AND CNTRL PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND.

MODERATELY STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 35-45KTS PARALLEL TO FRONTAL
ZONE SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS/LINE SEGMENTS
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS. OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY EVENING AS AIRMASS COOLS AND STABILIZES.

...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY...
AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH /NOW OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS/ WILL
TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BEFORE LIFTING MORE NEWD INTO
WRN ONTARIO/NWRN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. PRIMARY SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE WILL DEVELOP EWD ACROSS CNTRL MANITOBA INTO
W-CNTRL OR NWRN QUEBEC WHILE TRAILING PRESSURE TROUGH/WEAK COLD
FRONT PUSHES EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND INTO WRN MN BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

A PLUME OF MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /7-7.5 C/KM/ 
ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM WILL LARGELY CONTRIBUTE A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AFTERNOON AIRMASS /MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG/ AS
BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 50S.
SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OVER WRN/CNTRL MN AS STRONGER FORCING ALONG FRONT AND
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENCOUNTER AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. 0-3KM SRH OF 150-250 M2/S2 AND 30-40KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF
MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. TSTMS WILL LIKELY SPREAD EWD
ACROSS NRN WI/WRN UP OF MI TONIGHT...HOWEVER DECREASING INSTABILITY
SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

...CAROLINAS...
PER LATEST TPC TROPICAL STORM FORECAST/ADVISORY...GASTON COULD REACH
HURRICANE STRENGTHEN PRIOR TO REACHING THE SC COAST LATER TODAY.
MOIST/SHEARED LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IN RIGHT FORWARD QUADRANT OF
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SMALL SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES EMBEDDED WITHIN LANDFALLING RAINBANDS.

..MEAD/BANACOS.. 08/29/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.