[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 272020
SWODY1
SPC AC 272017

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0317 PM CDT FRI AUG 27 2004

VALID 272000Z - 281200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N
MFD 25 ENE MIE 20 SSE HUF 30 W MDH 35 WNW FYV 20 WNW ADM 10 E ABI 10
WNW SJT MAF 50 ENE HOB 40 SW CDS 35 WSW P28 45 SW FNB 25 NE LWD BRL
30 WSW MMO BEH 15 NW LAN 35 SSE OSC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E PSX 55 E CLL 60
SW TYR 25 NW ACT 30 E JCT 70 SSE DRT ...CONT... 10 SSW DUG 40 WSW
SVC 40 NE ELP 25 S 4CR 30 E ABQ 25 SE DRO 40 NE 4BL 45 WNW 4HV 25 NW
DPG 45 S BYI 45 SSW LWS 45 NNW 63S ...CONT... 65 NNW GGW 70 NE BIL
81V 40 ESE AIA 15 SSW IML 20 SSW GLD 50 WSW GCK 30 S GCK 35 NNE DDC
35 ENE HLC 30 ESE HSI 15 NNW OMA 40 ENE ALO 20 E OSH 50 SE ANJ
...CONT... 25 S HUL 10 SE LCI 10 WSW POU 25 SSE MRB 25 S ROA 15 NE
GSO 20 S RDU 20 N HSE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EXTENDING FROM LOWER MI SWWD
ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY TO SRN PLAINS...

...MID MS VALLEY SWWD TO SRN PLAINS...
HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER
WRN SD/ERN CO...AND MAIN UPPER TROUGH /OVER CENTRAL ROCKIES TO FOUR
CORNERS REGION/ WILL SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MO
RIVER VALLEY THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NRN
LOWER MI SWWD ACROSS NWRN MO TO WRN OK AND WEST CENTRAL TX WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTH. A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION INTERSECTED THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NWRN MO.

INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEIGHT FALLS AND
ENTRANCE REGION OF STRONG SWLY UPPER LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT
CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM
NERN KS INTO NRN MO AND SRN/SERN IA.  STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OVER NWRN MO TO CENTRAL TX ATOP AXIS OF VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
/SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S/ WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT
IN MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG/. 
LOCALLY EXTREME INSTABILITY VALUES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ERN KS/
WRN AND NRN MO WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG.

BAND OF 35-40 KT OF SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ALONG AND NORTH OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS INITIALLY ACROSS NERN KS/NRN MO TO FAR SRN/SERN
IA...WITH CONTINUED SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL MO THEN INTO WRN
IL.  AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREAD EWD ACROSS SRN KS/WRN OK LATER
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...CAP SHOULD WEAKEN FOR ADDITIONAL
STORMS TO DEVELOP SWD ALONG THE FRONT...POTENTIALLY AS FAR SOUTH AS
NWRN TX.  CAPE/SHEAR COMBINATIONS WILL SUPPORT HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREATS.  ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PARAMETERS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN KS INTO MO ALONG THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AND WHERE THIS BOUNDARY INTERSECTS THE COLD FRONT WILL
SUPPORT THE THREAT OF TORNADOES.

STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ NOSING INTO CENTRAL MO/IL WILL SUPPORT THE
UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO ONE OR TWO MCS/S MOVING ENEWD ACROSS THE
MID MS VALLEY TO SRN GREAT LAKES/LOWER OH VALLEY REGION
OVERNIGHT...WITH PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS.

...LOWER MI...
DESPITE MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS SRN LOWER MI AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
LIKELY LIMIT ANY ADDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT INTO THE EVENING.

...PORTIONS SOUTHWEST TX...
WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITHIN PLUME OF MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
SW TX WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE
EVENING.  WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WILL LIMIT THE THREAT FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS...DESPITE THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. 
HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS OR LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY...GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY.

...LEE OF LOWER GREAT LAKES...
AIR MASS HAS BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ACROSS WRN NY AND MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ACROSS NERN OH/NWRN PA.  ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS ONGOING LINES OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SERN ONTARIO/ERN LAKE ONTARIO AND OVER FAR NRN
OH/LAKE ERIE MOVE EWD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS.  ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
WEAKEN THIS EVENING...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES WITH THE LOSS
OF DAY TIME HEATING.

..PETERS.. 08/27/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.