[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 271628
SWODY1
SPC AC 271625

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CDT FRI AUG 27 2004

VALID 271630Z - 281200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N
MFD 25 ENE MIE 20 SSE HUF 45 NW CGI 35 WNW FYV 35 WNW ADM 50 E BGS
55 NW BGS 45 WNW LBB 30 W P28 40 SE BIE 20 ESE P35 35 NW UIN 35 SW
MMO BEH 15 NW LAN 35 SSE OSC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E PSX 55 E CLL 60
SW TYR 25 NW ACT 30 E JCT 70 SSE DRT ...CONT... 10 SSW DUG 40 WSW
SVC 40 NE ELP 25 S 4CR 30 E ABQ 25 SE DRO 40 NE 4BL 45 WNW 4HV 25 NW
DPG 45 S BYI 45 SSW LWS 45 NNW 63S ...CONT... 65 NNW GGW 70 NE BIL
81V 40 ESE AIA 15 SSW IML 20 SSW GLD 50 WSW GCK 30 S GCK 35 NNE DDC
35 ENE HLC 30 ESE HSI 15 NNW OMA 40 ENE ALO 20 E OSH 50 SE ANJ
...CONT... 25 S HUL 10 SE LCI 10 WSW POU 25 SSE MRB 25 S ROA 15 NE
GSO 20 S RDU 20 N HSE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES SWWD INTO NWRN TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
MEAN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH POSITION WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EWD FROM
THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE
PERIOD.  THIS WILL MEAN WLY/SWLY FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING THE PERIOD AS MID LEVEL RIDGING HANGS
ON ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION INTO THE TN VALLEY.  MORNING
SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL
UPPER MI SWD ACROSS THE DOOR COUNTY PENINSULA OF WI...THEN AS A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUED OVER NERN IA AND NWRN MO...THRU A
LOW OVER CENTRAL KS...THEN SWWD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE.  A SMALL
MCS ACROSS NERN MO HAS LAID OUT A CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL
IL WWD INTO NERN MO WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PLAY A ROLE IN ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON.

...PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MO AND IL...

AIR MASS S AND E OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS VERY UNSTABLE THIS
MORNING WITH SBCAPE GENERALLY AROUND 3000 J/KG...WITH SOME VALUES
AROUND 4000 J/KG OVER EAST CENTRAL MO AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  ETA MODEL DEPICTED AN MCV THAT WILL MOVE NEWD
INTO NERN IL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS MAIN MID LEVEL VORTICITY
AXIS MOVES SEWD FROM WRN SD/NERN CO INTO NERN NEB/WRN KS BY 28/12Z. 
MODEL ALSO SHOWS UPPER LEVEL WIND MAX OF 100-130 KT FROM NWRN IA
NEWD OVER WRN LK SUPERIOR PLACING AREAS FROM ERN KS INTO CENTRAL IL
IN FAVORABLE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT TO ENHANCE UVVS MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OF 30-40 KT WAS PRESENT
FROM OK AND ERN KS NEWD INTO IL...IN AND LOWER MI WHICH THE ETA AND
LATEST RUC MODELS WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOSTLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE
DAMAGING WINDS ESPECIALLY OVER ERN KS CENTRAL PARTS OF MO INTO
CENTRAL IL.  STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR/AROUND 7C/KM ARE
EXPECTED WITH SOME LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS NERN OK INTO SWRN MO
NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.  SOME HAIL IS
ANTICIPATED AS WELL WITH LARGE CAPE VALUES...BUT LIMITED WITH
FREEZING LEVELS FORECAST ABV 12K FT AGL.

...PARTS OF SRN/ERN LOWER MI...

PRIND ARE THAT MAIN FRONTAL FORCING WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS PARTS OF
LOWER MI AND EXTREME NRN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. 
AIR MASS IS MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID
70S AND SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 3000 J/KG.  MODELS INDICATE THAT COLD
FRONT WILL DRAG SEWD ACROSS LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ENHANCING UVVS ACROSS THE AREA.  ANALYSIS OF MODEL SOUNDINGS IN THIS
AREA INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF SOME MID LEVEL DRYING COMBINED WITH
LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS OF 30-40 KT.  THUS...ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

..MCCARTHY.. 08/27/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.