[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 271252
SWODY1
SPC AC 271249

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 AM CDT FRI AUG 27 2004

VALID 271300Z - 281200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE
HUF 50 N EVV 25 ESE TBN 35 WNW FYV 35 WNW ADM 50 E BGS 55 NW BGS 45
WNW LBB 30 W P28 40 SE BIE DSM 20 SSW CID 20 NNW PIA 25 WNW LAF 30
NNE HUF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N OLF 40 W MLS 35
ESE 81V 50 SE AIA 30 ENE BUB 45 SSE FSD 25 S RST 20 N JVL 35 ENE MTW
70 E MQT ...CONT... 25 S HUL 10 SE LCI 10 WSW POU 25 SSE MRB 35 WNW
DAN 10 SE SOP 15 NNW HSE ...CONT... 20 E PSX 55 E CLL 60 SW TYR 25
NW ACT 30 E JCT 70 SSE DRT ...CONT... 15 SW DUG 40 WSW SVC 35 SSW
ALM 25 S 4CR 30 E ABQ 25 SE DRO 40 NE 4BL 50 N BCE 30 WNW DPG 15 ESE
TWF 20 NNE BKE 45 NW 63S.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS
THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY...

...KS...OK AND NW TX...

POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED IMPULSES OVER THE SWRN
U.S. WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS
EVENING. DEEP LAYER SWLY FLOW WILL PERSIST DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS
FEATURE...AND SRN HALF OF COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO
THE NRN TX PANHANDLE WILL SETTLE ONLY SLOWLY SWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS
TODAY.

STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO DESTABILIZATION TODAY IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR FROM KS THROUGH
OK AND NW TX. INSTABILITY WILL BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY WARM MIDDLE
LEVEL TEMPERATURES...BUT MLCAPE COULD STILL APPROACH 3000 J/KG BY
LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND LIFT IN FRONTAL ZONE
SHOULD WEAKEN CAP ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO INITIATE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON FROM KS SWWD THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE. LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL WEAKEN AS NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET DIMINISHES
AND LEAD IMPULSE LIFTS NEWD INTO CANADA. THE STRONGER MIDDLE LEVEL
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIKELY
REMAIN POST FRONTAL. THIS SUGGESTS THAT SHEAR IN THE PRE-FRONTAL
WARM SECTOR WILL BE LIMITED AND LARGELY SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLS.
STILL...STORMS WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE INTO LINES ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE AND SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD SEWD. THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR THE THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL INTO
THE EVENING.

INTENSIFYING SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ACTIVITY
CONTINUING SEWD THROUGH OK AND PARTS OF WRN AND NRN TX OVERNIGHT
WITH A CONTINUED BUT SOMEWHAT DIMINISHED SEVERE THREAT.


...MID MS VALLEY THROUGH OH VALLEY...

CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SRN LOWER MI SWWD INTO NRN
MO. THE EASTERN PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES MOVING EWD WHILE
THE MO PORTION REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. STORMS WILL LIKELY
REDEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FROM OH...IND...IL AND
MO...AS WELL AS ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT SETTLES SWD INTO SRN IA
AND MO. SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHEAR AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT THAN
OVER THE OH VALLEY SUGGEST A BETTER SEVERE THREAT WITH STORMS
DEVELOPING IN MO...CNTRL IL AND POSSIBLY SRN IA. MAIN THREATS WILL
BE FROM DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM AND
FLOW/SHEAR WEAKENS WITH ERN EXTENT INTO IND AND OH...SUGGESTING
THREAT IN THIS AREA WILL BE MORE MARGINAL FOR STORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...BUT ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.


...LOWER MI...

QUESTION REMAINS HOW MUCH RECOVERY CAN OCCUR IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR IN WAKE OF MORNING STORMS. MOST STORMS HAVE CLEARED THE
STATE. HOWEVER...HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS FROM MCS OVER MO CONTINUE
ADVECTING DOWNSTREAM. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF SURFACE
HEATING...ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT
AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. THOUGH SHEAR WILL REMAIN STRONGER
THAN OVER THE OH VALLEY...HEIGHTS WILL RISE AS LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EJECTS NEWD INTO CANADA...WITH RESULTING WEAKENING LOW-MID LEVEL
WIND FIELDS AND WEAKENING FORCING FOR DEEP LAYER ASCENT. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES AND POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN
THIS AREA...ONLY 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL BE INTRODUCED AT THIS
TIME.

..DIAL/TAYLOR.. 08/27/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.