[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 270530
SWODY1
SPC AC 270527

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 AM CDT FRI AUG 27 2004

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE
ABI 10 SE BGS 35 ENE HOB 45 ESE CVS 25 ESE AMA 10 WSW GAG 20 NNW P28
40 SSE BIE 40 SW DSM 35 NNW OTM 35 W MMO 30 NNW DNV 35 E SLO 35 W
MDH 35 ESE SGF 35 NW MLC 25 SE SPS 20 ENE ABI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E PSX 55 E CLL 60
SW TYR 25 NW ACT 30 E JCT 70 SSE DRT ...CONT... 20 SSW DUG 40 WSW
SVC 40 NE ELP 25 S 4CR 30 E ABQ 25 SE DRO 40 NE 4BL 50 N BCE 30 WNW
DPG 15 ESE TWF 20 NNE BKE 45 NW 63S ...CONT... 65 NNW GGW 45 NNE BIL
15 ESE 81V 50 SE AIA 30 ESE BBW 35 NNW SUX 20 SSE RST 20 SW IMT 30 N
ANJ ...CONT... 25 S HUL 10 SE LCI 10 WSW POU 25 SSE MRB 35 WNW DAN
10 SE SOP 15 NNW HSE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO
WEST TX...

...OH VALLEY TO SRN PLAINS...

LARGE SCALE SURFACE FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY WILL BECOME THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE PERIOD FRIDAY.  UPSTREAM...TRAILING UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES SHOULD PROGRESS INTO THE PLAINS BY LATE EVENING WITH
ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE BOUNDARY AND
NEARBY WARM SECTOR WHERE VERY MOIST AIRMASS/MODERATE-HIGH
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST.

EARLY IN THE PERIOD...REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT MCS ACTIVITY SHOULD
SPREAD ACROSS LOWER MI...TRAILING SWWD INTO NRN MO WHERE ASSOCIATED
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW SHOULD SERVE AS A STIMULUS FOR POTENTIAL MID
DAY-LATE AFTERNOON ROBUST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  ALTHOUGH
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS...IT APPEARS
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST A THREAT FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY SOME HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS.

LATER IN THE DAY...STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL DEVELOP ALONG
AN AXIS FROM NWRN TX INTO ERN KS WHERE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD
EXCEED 8.5-9C/KM.  IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG FORCING IT APPEARS THIS
HEATING WILL PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN FORCING BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS TO
THEIR LFC AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT INITIATE UNTIL NEAR 00Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NWRN TX...WHILE ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP EARLIER ACROSS KS. 
AGAIN...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE SEVERE THREATS.

..DARROW/TAYLOR.. 08/27/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.