[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 270049
SWODY1
SPC AC 270046

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 PM CDT THU AUG 26 2004

VALID 270100Z - 271200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW
OTM 45 WNW LWD 25 E OMA 45 E SUX 30 ESE SPW 35 ENE MCW 50 SSW LSE 20
WSW DBQ 30 WNW MLI 35 SW OTM.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OSC
FNT 30 SW JXN 45 S SBN 10 NNE CMI 45 SE UIN 35 NW SZL 20 NNE TOP 35
SSE BIE 15 NNE BIE 15 ENE SUX 25 W SPW 15 NW MKT 45 S DLH 25 ENE
DLH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WNW MRF 10 ENE INK
50 SSE LBB 45 SE CDS 10 S SPS 30 WSW MWL 35 ESE SJT 30 NNW DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW PSX 20 WSW CLL
30 SSW TYR 35 E PRX 20 ENE MKO 25 NW CNU 30 ESE SLN 25 SE HSI 15 NNE
MCK 45 E LIC COS 15 ENE GJT 30 N U24 40 S OWY 25 SSW BNO DLS 25 NE
BLI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW ART 40 WNW IPT
25 WNW SHD 35 NE HKY 15 W AND 25 WNW AGS 25 SW SOP 20 WSW GSB 30 E
EWN.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS IA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM
NRN MO INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...

...IA TO GREAT LAKES...

NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS HAVE EVOLVED FROM CNTRL IA INTO SWRN IA AHEAD OF
SFC FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY SURGING SWD THROUGH THE CNTRL
PLAINS...ALTHOUGH SOME EWD PUSH IS NOTED TOWARD THE MS VALLEY
REGION.  DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS AND 00Z SOUNDINGS REFLECT A HIGHLY MOIST
AND SIGNIFICANTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS IA INTO NRN IL...WITH
THE LATEST PROFILE FROM DVN STRONGLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES AND TORNADOES.  LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HAVE A
DECENT HANDLE ON LATE EVENING EVOLUTION WITH ONGOING ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO SPREAD/DEVELOP ENEWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF IA INTO SRN
WI/NRN IL.  SUPERCELL STRUCTURES HAVE YET TO MERGE INTO ANY
MEANINGFUL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER AND THIS MAY TAKE SOME TIME GIVEN
THE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.  HOWEVER...BY 03-04Z THE PROBABILITY FOR
MCS EVOLUTION APPEARS TO BE INCREASING AS LLJ STRENGTHENS OVER SERN
IA/NRN IL. TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE HIGHEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BECOMING THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREATS AS MCS MATURES AND SPREADS TOWARD THE SRN GREAT LAKES AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  (REF LATEST MESOSCALE DISCUSSION #2123 FOR LATEST
INFORMATION ON THIS ACTIVITY.)

UPSTREAM ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS...STEEP LAPSE RATES NORTH OF JET
AXIS WILL WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS SHOULD PROVE
DETRIMENTAL TO ONGOING ACTIVITY ALONG THE MO RIVER INTO NERN
SD/WCNTRL MN.  UNTIL THEN...HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY A FEW OF THE STRONGER
UPDRAFTS BEFORE DIURNAL COOLING BECOMES ESTABLISHED.

..DARROW.. 08/27/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.