[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 251543
SWODY1
SPC AC 251540

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1040 AM CDT WED AUG 25 2004

VALID 251630Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE
SPI 20 WSW BLV 10 S VIH 50 NNE SGF 25 SSW OJC 15 ENE TOP 10 ESE FNB
50 NNE FNB 25 S DSM 35 SSW CID 10 SW MLI 10 WNW PIA 10 ENE SPI 40
SSE SPI.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 W
RRT 45 NE FAR AXN 25 ENE MKT 35 ESE RST 10 ESE MSN MKE GRR 10 NNW
FWA BMG POF 15 S HRO 25 NNE PRX 20 WNW DUA 15 SE OKC 15 SE PNC 25 SW
EMP 25 E MHK 20 ESE LNK 30 N OFK 35 NNW HON 40 ENE BIS 60 NNE MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW ART AOO 25 SE
TRI 30 ENE MCN 45 ESE MCN 35 ESE AGS FLO 25 SSE OAJ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GDP 15 S MAF
45 SE CDS 25 NW END 40 S RSL 50 S EAR 30 ESE BBW 40 NNE LBF 20 NNW
AKO 10 NNW FCL 50 ENE CAG 40 NE VEL EVW 20 N BYI 60 SSE BNO 45 WSW
RDM 40 SSW ONP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E CRP 20 N NIR 50
SSE AUS 40 ESE ACT 35 S FTW 20 SSW SEP 10 SE DRT.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF NRN/CENTRAL MO AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF KS/IA AND IL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN SWD TO
INCLUDE ERN OK AND SEWD INTO MID MS VALLEY......

...CENTRAL U.S..
UNSEASONABLY STRONG WLYS AND POTENT S/WV TROUGHS CONTINUE TO MOVE
EWD FROM PAC NW ACROSS CENTRAL U.S.  S/WV TROUGH NOW MOVING EWD
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PROVIDE UPWARD MOTION AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL U.S. TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
UPWARDS TO 50-55 KTS AND SFC-1KM SHEAR FROM 20-25 KT PROVIDING VERY
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SUPERCELLS FROM EXTREME ERN KS ACROSS MID
MS RIVER VALLEY.  WITH MLCAPES FROM 3000-4000 J/KG AND LAPSE RATES
IN EXCESS OF 7 C/KM...VERY LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH ANY SUPERCELL
IN THE MDT RISK AREA.

BOUNDARIES FROM CURRENT MCS MOVING ACROSS IA INTO IL ALONG WITH
OUTFLOW FROM ONGOING SEVERE STORMS NERN KS/SERN NEB AHEAD OF TROUGH
WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELL POTENTIAL BY MID
AFTERNOON.  POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TORNADOES GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY. CAP WEAKENS SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW CONVECTION
TO TAP INTO THE EXTREME INSTABILITY BY MID AFTERNOON FOR GREATEST
POTENTIAL  OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...EXTENDING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

CAP WILL WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL EXTENDING SWWD INTO ERN OK WHERE AIR MASS CONTAINS EXTREME
INSTABILITY.  SHEAR IS WEAKER IN THIS AREA WITH HIGHER LCLS THUS
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAIN THREAT.

SEVERE MODE SHOULD TRANSITION INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS DURING
EVENING WITH INCREASING WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL EWD ACROSS NRN IL.


...NCENTRAL U.S...
INCREASING SHEAR AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW DAKOTAS WILL
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON..  COMBINATION OF
MID/UPPER LEVEL COOLING AND DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE LOW 60S WITH
SURFACE HEATING PUSHES MLCAPES ABOVE 1000 J/KG ACROSS ERN DAKOTAS. 
DEEP LAYER SHEAR LESS THAN 30KTS FAVORS MORE PULSE AND MULTICELLULAR
DEVELOPMENT WITH GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND DAMAGE
ASSOCIATED WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS.

..HALES/JEWELL.. 08/25/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.