[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 250047
SWODY1
SPC AC 250044

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 PM CDT TUE AUG 24 2004

VALID 250100Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ENE
ELO DLH 65 N EAU 30 ESE RST 40 NNW BRL 40 WSW SPI 25 SSE VIH 35 NE
JLN 20 SW SLN 40 SSW HLC 30 NE AKO 50 E SNY 40 NW BBW 35 NW OTG 10
NW BRD 20 W INL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W BUF 30 SW DUJ 25
SSW SHD 20 SE GSO 45 SW SOP 30 SSW FLO 20 WNW CRE 25 WNW ILM 20 S
EWN 30 SE EWN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE YUM 45 WSW PRC
30 NNW FLG 30 ESE U17 CNY 25 ENE PUC 30 NE U24 15 NW DPG 50 S BYI 15
NE BYI 30 WNW IDA 60 NW 27U 30 SSW PDT 35 NNW YKM 20 NNE BLI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW 7R4 10 ESE MLU
30 NE PBF 60 NW LIT 35 W MKO 20 NE DDC 15 NW COS 60 NNE ALS 45 SSE
ALS 40 SW TCC 40 W PVW 40 NW BGS 40 ENE BGS 15 N ABI 15 NNE BWD 45
ENE JCT 10 NW DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE GGW BIL 25 WSW
WRL 45 E RIW 10 WSW DGW 30 N CDR 20 WNW 9V9 35 SE JMS 40 SSE TVF 30
ESE RRT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION
SWD INTO KS / MO...

...NERN KS / SERN NEB / SRN IA / NRN MO...
MCS WHICH MOVED ACROSS SERN MO EARLIER HAS LEFT A REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS FROM SRN MO INTO NERN KS.  WITH LOW-LEVEL JET
FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION...WARM ADVECTION /
ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD / SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
STORMS OVER THIS REGION.

WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE WITH TIME AS JET STREAK
ASSOCIATED WITH ERN AZ / WRN NM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING
EWD.  THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD SUGGESTS
THAT STORMS WILL ORGANIZED -- LIKELY INTO AN MCS -- OVERNIGHT. MAIN
SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE LARGE HAIL...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS ALONG WITH A TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE --
PARTICULARLY NEAR BOUNDARY WHERE SURFACE- OR NEAR SURFACE-BASED
STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY.  CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST / SHIFT EWD
ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...MN / WRN WI...
SCATTERED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG WIND SHIFT / SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM NEAR INL SSWWD TO FAR NWRN IA.  ALTHOUGH MARGINAL
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED / SUPERCELL
STORMS SUGGESTS THAT LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...SLOWLY STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF
AFTER SUNSET.

...WRN NEB SEWD INTO NRN KS...
LIMITED INSTABILITY IS INDICATED ACROSS WRN NEB ATTM...WHERE
SCATTERED / WEAK STORMS ARE ONGOING.  AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES
OVERNIGHT...STORMS MAY PERSIST EWD INTO MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. 
SHOULD THIS OCCUR...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE GIVEN
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR LIKELY SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS.

..GOSS.. 08/25/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.