[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 250556
SWODY1
SPC AC 250554

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CDT WED AUG 25 2004

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W
RRT 35 SSW BRD 10 E MSN 40 NW CGX 15 WNW CMI 30 SE BLV 20 E UNO 30
WNW MLC 30 NE OKC 20 N PNC 35 W EMP 50 W CNK 15 WNW ABR 50 E DIK 55
NNW MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW HOU 45 SE LFK
35 SSW MLU 30 SW ELD 35 NNE GGG 25 NNW ACT 35 WSW ABI 70 NNW ABI LTS
25 E HUT 35 SSE RSL 40 NNE LAA 25 ENE DEN 40 W EGE 35 NNW VEL 20 SW
EVW 25 SE SUN 35 W BOI 55 WSW PDT 45 NNW 4OM ...CONT... 35 WSW ART
LBE 30 SSE TYS 15 WSW CSG 10 WSW MAI 10 SE MGR 45 NW CHS 25 SW ILM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ERN HALF OF THE PLAINS
EWD INTO THE MIDWEST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BROADEN / EXPAND EWD THIS
PERIOD...WHILE RIDGE PERSISTS E OF THE APPALACHIANS.  SEVERAL
SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS WILL SHIFT ENEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS --
WHERE MAIN SEVERE THREAT EXISTS THIS PERIOD.

RATHER ILL-DEFINED SURFACE PATTERN IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN...WITH LOW
PRESSURE LINGERING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND A TROUGH EXTENDING SWD
ACROSS THE PLAINS.  ADDITIONALLY...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM ONGOING
CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MO / IA
WILL LIKELY BE A FOCUS FOR NEW CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

...ERN PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY...
ANOTHER COMPLEX FORECAST THIS PERIOD...GIVEN GENERALLY WEAK SURFACE
PATTERN AND FAVORABLE BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS
PERSISTING ACROSS A LARGE GEOGRAPHIC AREA.  

LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EXPANDING EWD...ALONG WITH A
BROAD BELT OF MODERATE WSWLY FLOW.  AS INITIAL / WELL-DEFINED
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS NEWD FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE MO
/ MID MS VALLEYS DURING THE DAY...MODERATE SSWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
BE MAINTAINED. RESULTING SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT STORM
ORGANIZATION ACROSS A LARGE AREA FROM THE NRN PLAINS SWD INTO TX AND
EWD INTO THE MID MS / LOWER OH VALLEYS.

WITH MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS E OF LOW-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
PLAINS...DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN MODERATE AIRMASS
DESTABILIZATION.  GREATEST INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ACROSS FROM ERN
KS INTO THE LOWER AND MID MO VALLEYS BY AFTERNOON...WHERE 1500 TO
3000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE IS EXPECTED GENERALLY TO THE W OF
LINGERING STORMS ACROSS IA / MO.  STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH -- PARTICULARLY ALONG REMNANT
OUTFLOWS.  

GREATEST SEVERE THREAT -- INCLUDING VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES -- IS
EXPECTED ATTM ACROSS ERN NEB / ERN KS / NWRN MO / WRN IA AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS WITH REGARDS TO OTHER POSSIBLE AREAS OF MORE CONCENTRATED
SEVERE THREAT.

AS LEAD SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS NEWD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES DURING
THE EVENING ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL JET...EXPECT CONVECTION
-- AND LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT -- TO SPREAD NEWD...WITH STORMS
LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

..GOSS.. 08/25/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.