[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 242000
SWODY1
SPC AC 241957

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 PM CDT TUE AUG 24 2004

VALID 242000Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ENE
ELO 35 E DLH 30 WNW EAU 50 NNE ALO 30 WSW MLI 15 E SPI 20 ENE MTO 25
SSW BMG 25 NE OWB 25 WNW HOP 10 NNW DYR 45 S UNO 10 NW FYV 30 NE BVO
25 E ICT 45 SSW RSL 30 SSW GLD 35 ESE AKO 50 E SNY 40 NW BBW 45 NE
BKX 50 WNW BRD 25 E RRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N GGW 25 WSW BIL
35 NW RIW 40 NNW RWL 25 SSW DGW 15 ESE CDR 35 NNW 9V9 35 NW ATY 40
ENE FAR 10 W RRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE YUM 45 WSW PRC
30 NNW FLG 30 ESE U17 CNY 25 ENE PUC 30 NE U24 45 E ELY 45 SSE EKO
20 ESE OWY 15 NE BYI 30 WNW IDA 30 SSW 27U 45 SE BKE 50 NW RDM 25
SSW ONP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WNW MRF 35 SSE HOB
10 NNE LBB 35 E AMA 35 SW LBL 25 N LHX 15 NW COS 60 NNE ALS 45 SSE
ALS 30 SW LVS 40 ESE ONM 70 E DUG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W BUF 30 SW DUJ 25
SSW SHD 20 SE GSO 45 SW SOP 30 SSW FLO 20 WNW CRE 25 WNW ILM 20 S
EWN 30 SE EWN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND
MS VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY...

...CENTRAL PLAINS TO SRN IL...

MID MS VALLEY MCS APPEARS TO BE REJUVENATING SOMEWHAT AS BOUNDARY
LAYER HEATING AIDS DESTABILIZATION ACROSS SERN MO INTO SRN IL. AN
EXPANDING PRECIPITATION SHIELD IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE MAY
ENHANCE FORWARD SPEED AS LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION SPREADS INTO THE
LOWER OH VALLEY.  LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH SOME THREAT FOR
HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS.

UPSTREAM ACROSS KS/SERN NEB...LLJ IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON BACK
SIDE OF MCS SFC HIGH WITH WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED TO ENHANCE THE
CONVECTIVE THREAT ALONG/NORTH OF RETREATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. 
LATEST VIS IMAGERY SUGGESTS THIS PROCESS IS UNDERWAY WITH RECENT
BOUNDARY LAYER WAVE CLOUDS NOW SPREADING NEWD ACROSS NERN KS.  AS
WARM SECTOR CONTINUES TO HEAT...INHIBITION WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE. 
HOWEVER...TIMING OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE AND REMAINING INHIBITION
SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT INITIATE UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING...OR
 POSSIBLY AS LATE AS 03Z.  EXTREME INSTABILITY AND INCREASING
VERTICAL SHEAR FAVOR INITIAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH ONE OR MORE
MCS'S EXPECTED AFTER DARK.  VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
WILL EVOLVE INTO A DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS CONVECTION ORGANIZES
LATE.

...UPPER MS VALLEY...

WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG N-S WIND SHIFT HAS YET TO GENERATE MORE THAN
SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER CONVECTION AT BEST.  WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EJECTING NEWD ACROSS MANITOBA INTO ONTARIO IT APPEARS
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER
THIS ALONE WILL PROVE ADEQUATE TO GENERATE MORE THAN ISOLATED STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MOSTLY LARGE HAIL.

..DARROW.. 08/24/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.