[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 241604
SWODY1
SPC AC 241601

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1101 AM CDT TUE AUG 24 2004

VALID 241630Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ENE
ELO 35 E DLH EAU 25 WNW LNR 20 E MLI 30 ENE ALN 35 ESE VIH 15 E UMN
30 N BVO 25 WSW ICT 50 NNW P28 50 NNW GCK 35 WNW GLD 30 SE SNY 40 NW
BBW 45 NE BKX 50 WNW BRD 25 E RRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N GGW 30 E LVM 20
NW LND 30 SSW RWL 30 WSW CYS 15 ESE BFF 40 WSW 9V9 25 W ATY 35 E FAR
20 WNW RRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE YUM 30 W GBN 40
WNW PHX FLG 30 ESE U17 CNY 25 ENE PUC 30 NE U24 45 E ELY 55 NNW ELY
20 ESE OWY 15 NE BYI 30 WNW IDA 30 SSW 27U 45 SE BKE 50 NW RDM 25
SSW ONP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W MRF 45 NW MRF 45
N MRF 30 WSW FST 25 E FST 30 ENE BGS 50 E LBB 10 S GAG 35 W P28 15 W
DDC 30 ENE LAA 20 SSW LIC 40 ENE GUC 40 SW ALS 30 NE ONM 15 NNE TCS
35 E DUG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W BUF 30 SW DUJ 25
SSW SHD 20 SE GSO 45 SW SOP 30 SSW FLO 20 WNW CRE 25 WNW ILM 20 S
EWN 30 SE EWN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL PLAINS INTO UPPER MS
VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY ENERGETIC WLY FLOW ACROSS CONUS IS BECOMING EVEN
MORE SO AS IMPRESSIVE 130KT 300MB JET MOVES ONTO THE PAC NW COAST BY
END OF FORECAST PERIOD.  MONDAYS STRONG TROUGH OVER MT HAS BEEN
KICKED NEWD INTO SCENTRAL CANADA WHILE A WEAKER UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION IS TRYING TO PHASE WITH SRN BRANCH IMPULSE  NOW
OVER AZ.  AZ S/WV IS THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS OFF BAJA MON AND WILL
MOVE RAPIDLY ENEWD INTO SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EARLY TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE THE COLD FRONT TRAILING SWD FROM THE LOW MOVING
ACROSS SRN MANITOBA WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EWD ACROSS MN TODAY
TRAILING BACK ACROSS NRN NEB WHERE IT WILL SLOW AND WEAKEN.

OVERNIGHT MCS ACTIVITY ERN KS/NRN MO IS PROVIDING THE MOST IMPORTANT
SURFACE BOUNDARY TODAY WITH REGARDS TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  MCS CURRENTLY PUSHING SEWD ACROSS
LOWER MO VALLEY WITH THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING WWD ACROSS CENTRAL KS TO
SURFACE LOW OVER WCENTRAL KS.

A VERY MOIST AND POTENTIALLY EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS S
OF KS/MO BOUNDARIES.

...CENTRAL PLAINS...
SUFFICIENT CAP WILL LIKELY DELAY REDEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON VICINITY OF KS SURFACE
BOUNDARY ALLOWING THE MLCAPES IN WARM SECTOR TO INCREASE TO 3000
J/KG OR GREATER TO E OF SURFACE LOW AND WEAK DRY LINE ACROSS CENTRAL
KS. WHILE SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 30KT WILL BE MARGINAL...THE PRONOUNCED
LOW LEVEL VEERING VICINITY SURFACE BOUNDARY...COUPLED WITH THE
IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMICS...SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON ALONG AND N OF THE E/W BOUNDARY. WITH
LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF  8C/KM...VERY LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH ANY
SUPERCELLS ALONG WITH A FEW TORNADOES.

AS S/WV OVER AZ ENTERS HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING ALONG WITH THE
NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN PLAINS LOW LEVEL JET...A SEVERE MCS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AND MOVE E/ESEWD INTO LOWER MO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL CONTINUE RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS WELL AFTER DARK.


...UPPER MS VALLEY...
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES TO 2000 J/KG. SFC-6KM SHEAR
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 25-30KT WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW 10-15 KTS. 
SURFACE BASED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL PRIMARILY BE PULSE VARIETY
WITH SOME ORGANIZED MULTI-CELLS VICINITY FRONTAL ZONE. MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL AND LOCAL DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE STORM MODE.

..HALES/JEWELL.. 08/24/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.