[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 241232
SWODY1
SPC AC 241229

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0729 AM CDT TUE AUG 24 2004

VALID 241300Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ENE
ELO 35 E DLH EAU 25 WNW LNR 20 E MLI UIN 55 SSW IRK 15 E UMN 30 S
EMP 25 NNE P28 35 SSW RSL 45 NW GCK 40 SSE LIC 50 NW AKO 40 NW BBW
45 NE BKX 50 WNW BRD 25 E RRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE CRP 35 WNW VCT
60 NNE CLL 20 NW GGG 40 ENE PRX 20 NW MLC 25 SSW END 40 W P28 35 NW
EHA 20 SW LHX 35 W TAD 35 SSW LVS 15 SSW 4CR 50 SE ALM 35 SSE GDP 30
E INK 35 NW SJT 40 WNW JCT 10 NW DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE OLF 55 NNW MLS
30 SSW SHR 55 SW RAP 15 NNW ABR 65 N GFK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SE YUM 40 NW PRC
25 S BCE 10 NNW MLF 50 NNW DRA 30 NW BIH 25 WSW RNO 60 E 4LW 35 NNE
BNO 10 ESE PDT 35 SSE OLM 15 W CLM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW JHW 25 NW MGW
15 NNE BKW 25 SW GSO 25 NNE FLO 30 W ILM 25 W HSE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO
MN/CANADIAN BORDER AREA...

...MN AREA...
MORNING SURFACE CHART SHOWS AN OCCLUDED FRONT TRAILING FROM 997 MB
LOW OVER SERN SASK SWD INTO ERN ND AND CNTRL SD.  A WARM FRONT WAS
SITUATED ACROSS SWRN MN.  AS SRN PERIPHERY OF 30-60 METER H5 HEIGHT
FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN PRARIES
TRANSLATE ENEWD...THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS MN.  A NARROW
INSTABILITY AXIS CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WILL
EXIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY.  TSTMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP ACROSS WRN
MN DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE EWD DURING THE EVENING. 
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INITIALLY BE WEAK IN THE WARM SECTOR...BUT
GRADUALLY INCREASE AS 50 KT SWLY H5 FLOW SAGS SEWD...POSSIBLY
AUGMENTING STORM ORGANIZATION. THE MEAN 2-6KM MEAN WIND VECTORS
WILL BE ORIENTED MORE PARALLEL WITH THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND
SUGGEST THAT TSTMS MAY ORGANIZE LINEARLY WITH TIME AND COULD PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.  ACTIVITY WILL APPROACH THE LAKE
SUPERIOR AND UPPER MS VLY AREAS OVERNIGHT WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE
LESS.  THUS...DECREASING RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR.

...CNTRL PLAINS...
NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EXIST AT DAYBREAK ACROSS THE CNTRL
PLAINS WITH THE STRONGEST ARCING FROM NRN MO WWD ACROSS NRN KS. 
THIS BOUNDARY MAY MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER SWD INTO THE I-70 CORRIDOR
LATER THIS MORNING AS MCS TRANSLATES ESEWD INTO NRN/CNTRL MO WHILE
WEAKENING.

NOW THAT THE MAIN IMPULSE OVER SCNTRL CANADA IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE
REGION AND SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER MO DEPARTS TO THE EAST...THE
MAJORITY OF THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL SEE A LULL/DECREASE IN TSTMS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. BUBBLE HIGH WILL REMAIN STRONG
ACROSS MO TODAY...BUT AIR MASS WILL RECOVER ACROSS CNTRL KS NWD INTO
SERN NEB AND SWRN IA.

SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 70S SITUATED ACROSS OK WILL ADVECT NWD
BENEATH STRENGTHENING CAP ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. 
THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES TO 3500 J/KG BETWEEN THE MO BUBBLE
HIGH AND DRYLINE ACROSS SCNTRL KS.

CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY WAIT UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS CAP WILL
REMAIN STRONG AND RIDGING ALOFT MAINTAINS SUBSIDENCE. 
HOWEVER...UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AS SUBTROPICAL
JETLET...ANALYZED OVER NM...MOVES INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND BECOMES
COUPLED WITH CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET OVER THE NRN PLAINS. 
HEATING...INCREASED LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
JET TOWARD EVENING WILL LIKELY AID IN TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER NWRN
KS/SWRN NEB/NERN CO AREA EWD TOWARD THE MO RVR.  LOWEST 6KM SHEAR
WILL BE 35-40 KTS COINCIDENT WITH THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND
SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY.  POTENTIAL FOR HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
BASEBALLS WILL EXIST OVER NCNTRL KS/SCNTRL NEB EWD TO THE MO RVR IN
THE EVENING AND THE UPDATED OUTLOOK WILL INCLUDE A SMALL AREA OF
SIGNIFICANT HAIL PROBABILITIES.  MOREOVER...A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO
COULD OCCUR...PRIMARILY NEAR THE SCNTRL/SERN NEB/KS BORDER AREA
WHERE LOW LEVEL SELY FLOW...LOW LCLS...EXTREME CAPE AND ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL HELICITY WILL EXIST.

LLJ AXIS ENHANCES THETA-E ADVECTION EWD ACROSS SRN IA/NRN MO
OVERNIGHT AND THE TSTMS WILL LIKELY CONGEAL INTO A MCS AND TRACK
ESEWD THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THOUGH SEVERE THREATS WILL
DECREASE...DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BECOME MORE OF A THREAT FARTHER EWD.

..RACY/TAYLOR.. 08/24/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.