[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 241047
SWODY1
SPC AC 241044

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0544 AM CDT TUE AUG 24 2004

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ENE
ELO 35 E DLH EAU 25 WNW LNR 20 E MLI UIN 45 NE SZL 20 S JLN 35 S ICT
25 ESE RSL 45 NW GCK 40 SSE LIC 50 NW AKO 60 SSE 9V9 45 NE BKX 50
WNW BRD 25 E RRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW JHW 25 NW MGW
BKW 35 SSW GSO CRE ...CONT... 15 SSE CRP 35 WNW VCT 60 NNE CLL 25 NW
GGG 30 E PRX MLC 20 SSW END 35 WNW P28 45 NW EHA 25 NW COS 35 WNW
RTN 45 SSW 4CR 30 NW ELP 35 SSE GDP 25 E INK 40 SSE BGS 70 SW SJT 30
ESE P07 ...CONT... 70 ESE YUM 50 WSW GCN 15 S BCE 10 NW MLF 55 NW
DRA 35 NW BIH 25 W RNO 20 SSE BNO 25 SSE PDT 10 SE EAT 15 SE BLI
...CONT... 55 NE HVR 60 NNW MLS 35 S SHR 55 SW RAP 15 NNW ABR 70 NNW
TVF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...LOWER AND MIDDLE MO VALLEY...AND MID AND UPPER MS VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE / SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE
WRN AND CENTRAL CONUS THIS PERIOD WHILE RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE
ERN STATES.  NUMEROUS VORTICITY MAXIMA / SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED
WITHIN CYCLONIC SWLY FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. -- WHERE
MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS ANTICIPATED.

AT THE SURFACE...COMPLEX PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED WITH A LACK OF
STRONG BAROCLINICITY.  MAIN FEATURES WILL INCLUDE A WEAKENING TROUGH
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND A LOW FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS
KS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER AND MID MO / MID AND UPPER MS
VALLEYS...
DIFFICULT FORECAST THIS PERIOD AS LARGE AREA OF INSTABILITY AND
COMPLEX / GENERALLY WEAK SURFACE PATTERN MAKES NARROWING DOWN AREAS
OF GREATER SEVERE THREAT DIFFICULT ATTM.

STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF MN AS WELL AS THE
IA / MO AREA.  THIS CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT EWD AND DECREASE DURING
THE DAY...WHILE AIRMASS W OF THE CONVECTION -- ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MO VALLEY REGION -- DESTABILIZES.

STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP BY AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE
REGION...INCLUDING ALONG WEAKENING TROUGH FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM MN
SWWD INTO NEB...AS WELL AS INVOF REMNANT OUTFLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE
KS / MO REGION.  

LARGE AREA OF MODERATE CYCLONIC SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST
ACROSS THIS REGION ALONG SERN EDGE OF LARGE UPPER TROUGH...ABOVE
GENERALLY SLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS SE OF AFOREMENTIONED MN TO NEB SURFACE
BOUNDARY.  RESULTING SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS A LARGE GEOGRAPHIC AREA
WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED / SUPERCELL STORMS...AND THEREFORE HAVE
MAINTAINED A LARGE SLIGHT RISK AREA THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE
GREATEST SEVERE THREAT ATTM IS EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF KS / ERN NB
AND INTO WRN IA...IN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF KS SURFACE LOW.
 COMBINATION OF REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND PRESENCE OF WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NW SHOULD FOCUS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT OF FAVORABLE INSTABILITY /
SHEAR. ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL...A TORNADO OR TWO MAY ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THIS REGION.

ALTHOUGH STORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY SHOULD WEAKEN OVERNIGHT
AS THEY MOVE EWD INTO LESS UNSTABLE AIRMASS...STORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF MO / IA AND INTO WRN IL
AS LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES / MAINTAINS FAVORABLE WARM ADVECTION
REGIME.

..GOSS.. 08/24/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.