[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 240113
SWODY1
SPC AC 240110

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0810 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2004

VALID 240100Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 N
GFK 25 S BRD 30 ENE MKT 30 N MCW 30 ESE SPW 25 E OMA SZL 35 NE JLN
35 NNW BVO 30 W PNC EHA 40 NNW LAA 35 ESE AKO 25 NW IML 15 NE PHP 50
WSW BIS 60 NNW ISN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N ELO 30 E RHI 25
NNE FNT 40 E TOL 25 NNW CMH 30 E CRW 35 S ROA 35 SSW GSO CRE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE YUM 15 NW GBN
60 E PHX 45 SSE SOW 30 ENE SAD 20 S FHU.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE DRT 15 NE AUS
35 WNW TXK 20 NE HRO 10 WNW TUL 20 SE CDS 35 NW PVW 35 SE GUC 20 SW
DEN 15 NNW FCL 40 SSW DGW 35 NNE DGW 60 SE 81V 10 NNW REJ 10 SSE OLF
80 ENE HVR.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS...

...THE DAKOTAS SWD ACROSS NEB INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
SURFACE LOW IS INDICATED ALONG THE ND / SD BORDER...WITH FRONT
EXTENDING NNWWD INTO FAR NERN MT AND SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL SD INTO THE
MIDDLE MO VALLEY.  A LEE TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW SSWWD
ACROSS W CENTRAL NEB INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. 

SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM FROM W CENTRAL ND
SWD INTO THE WRN HALF OF NEB INVOF SURFACE LOW / FRONT...WHERE AXIS
OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /1500 TO 3000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/ EXISTS. 


WITH 35 TO 50 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW SPREADING ACROSS THIS REGION
AND LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASING FROM THE S / SE...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR ORGANIZED / SUPERCELL STORMS WITH ASSOCIATED
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
CONTINUING.  

STORMS ACROSS ND SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED WITH
TIME...WITH MAIN THREAT TRANSITIONING TO HAIL LATER THIS EVENING. 
FURTHER S INTO SD / NEB...SURFACE-BASED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING BEFORE DECREASING LATER TONIGHT.  

MORE ISOLATED HAIL / WIND THREAT EXISTS SWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
THIS EVENING WHERE INCREASING WARM ADVECTION MAY SUPPORT SCATTERED
TO ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH STORMS WILL LIKELY SHIFT
EWD ACROSS KS AND PERSIST THROUGH OVERNIGHT HOURS...THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN LIMITED BY WEAKER FLOW ALOFT.

...ERN KS / WRN MO...
CLUSTER OF SUPERCELL STORMS CONTINUES ACROSS NERN KS ATTM...JUST N
OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE ESELY SURFACE WINDS VEER RAPIDLY TO WLY AT
AROUND 3 KM.  EXPECT THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS ALONG WITH A TORNADO OR TWO TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.

LOW-LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
ACROSS THIS AREA THIS EVENING. THUS EXPECT CONVECTION TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AND SHIFT EWD INTO MO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHILE
BECOMING INCREASINGLY ELEVATED WITH TIME.  THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT.

..GOSS.. 08/24/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.