[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 232005
SWODY1
SPC AC 232003

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0303 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2004

VALID 232000Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW
RRT 25 SSE BRD 10 SE RST 25 WNW ALO 15 W FOD 20 E OMA 30 W P35 20
SSE SZL 15 N UMN 15 WSW BVO 10 W END 20 ENE GAG 20 WSW DDC 40 NNE
GLD 45 SSW MHN 35 NE REJ 55 SSE GDV 30 NW MLS 45 SSW GGW 50 NNE GGW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N ELO 30 WSW IWD
30 NNW GRB 35 E MBL 50 SE OSC ...CONT... 20 WNW ART 15 SW PBG 30 SE
EFK 15 SSW LEB POU 20 S ABE 25 NE DAY 30 E LUK BKW 20 W GSO 30 SSW
FAY 10 SSE ILM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE P07 25 NE DHT
25 SW LAA 30 SW LIC 40 ENE ASE 15 NW U28 35 SSE ELY 35 N TPH 10 SE
NFL 35 NNW LOL 35 NW WMC 30 S OWY 15 SSW LND 35 NNE DGW 60 SE 81V 30
WSW REJ 4BQ 55 WSW BIL 15 ENE MQM 50 NNE 27U 20 SE 3TH 80 NW FCA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W YUM 20 SSE EED
50 WSW GCN 35 NE FLG 40 E INW 40 ESE SOW 10 ENE SAD 20 WSW DUG.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS...

...NRN PLAINS...

CONVECTION IS SLOWLY DEEPENING BENEATH WELL DEFINED UPPER VORT AS IT
SHIFTS EWD ACROSS MT...JUST SOUTH OF GGW.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN
TO INGEST HIGHER THETA-E AIRMASS THAT IS SPREADING RAPIDLY NWD AHEAD
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS.  ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW
HAS VEERED SOMEWHAT WITH THIS CONVECTION...IT APPEARS NEW
DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG WIND SHIFT AS IT
ADVANCES EWD INTO WRN ND.  PROFILES ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...AND WITH TIME THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD
INCREASE AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS.  STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME
WILL ALLOW AN UPWARD CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION INTO A POSSIBLE MCS AS
CONVECTION SPREADS EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT.  DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD BECOME THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS LATER THIS
EVENING.


...CENTRAL PLAINS...

SEVERAL LARGE CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION HAVE RECENTLY SHIFTED EAST OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY WITH ASSOCIATED
STABILIZING OUTFLOW FORCED WWD INTO SERN NEB/ERN KS.  OVER THE LAST
HOUR OR SO NEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE GENERATED ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY...WITH SOME APPARENT SUPPLEMENTARY LIFT AIDED BY WARM
ADVECTION ATOP THE BUBBLE HIGH.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY BRIEFLY ATTAIN
SEVERE LEVELS AS IT SPREADS NNEWD WITH A THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS OR HAIL.

OF SOME CONCERN FARTHER WEST NEAR THE DRYLINE IS THE RECENT CU
DEVELOPMENT...MOSTLY IN THE HIGH PLATEAU AIRMASS FROM THE NEB
PANHANDLE INTO THE TX PANHANDLE.  THIS IS CLEARLY INDICATIVE OF THE
STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WEST OF THE TRUE DRYLINE. AS BOUNDARY
LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM IT APPEARS THIS SHALLOW CONVECTION MAY
SPREAD EAST AND INGEST EXTREME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.  ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES WILL CERTAINLY
BECOME SEVERE WITH AT LEAST A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT. 
VEERING WIND PROFILES ACROSS KS MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT IN AIDING STORM
ROTATION AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.

..DARROW.. 08/23/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.