[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 231604
SWODY1
SPC AC 231601

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1101 AM CDT MON AUG 23 2004

VALID 231630Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW
RRT 40 NE RWF 15 NW FOD 50 SW FOD 45 ENE OMA 25 NE FNB 35 NNE PNC 15
NNW LBL 45 SSW MHN 40 ENE CDR 45 WNW Y22 60 NW ISN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW ART 15 SW PBG
30 SE EFK 15 SSW LEB POU 20 S ABE 25 NE DAY 30 E LUK BKW 20 W GSO 30
SSW FAY 10 SSE ILM ...CONT... 25 N ELO 30 WSW IWD 30 NNW GRB 35 E
MBL 50 SE OSC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE P07 25 NE DHT
25 SW LAA 30 SW LIC 40 ENE ASE 15 NW U28 35 SSE ELY 35 N TPH 10 SE
NFL 35 NNW LOL 35 NW WMC 30 S OWY 15 SSW LND 35 NNE DGW 60 SE 81V 30
WSW REJ 4BQ 55 WSW BIL 15 ENE MQM 50 NNE 27U 20 SE 3TH 80 NW FCA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W YUM 20 SSE EED
50 WSW GCN 35 NE FLG 40 E INW 40 ESE SOW 10 ENE SAD 20 WSW DUG.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL  AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

...NRN PLAINS...
UPPER LOW VICINITY GTF AT 15Z AND ASSOCIATED STRONG S/WV TROUGH
EXTENDING SWD INTO WY MOVING NEWD WITH LOW INTO SRN SASKATCHEWAN BY
THIS EVENING AS TROUGH AND AREA OF STG UVV'S/MID LEVEL COOLING
SPREADS EWD ACROSS WRN DAKOTAS.  SURFACE LOW SERN MT WILL TRACK NEWD
INTO WRN ND WITH LEE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD THRU CENTRAL/NRN
HIGH PLAINS.

STRONG GULF MOISTURE INCREASE IS UNDERWAY TO E OF LEE TROUGH ACROSS
CENTRAL PLAINS AND WILL BE SPREADING RAPIDLY NWD INTO THE DAKOTAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVEN THE 30-40KT SLY LLJ AHEAD OF MT/WY
TROUGH. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK IN THE DAKOTAS IS SOMEWHAT
CONDITIONAL ON HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF TROUGH AS
THE KINEMATICS ARE STRONG.  BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS INTO THE
60S SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE IT INTO SRN ND...WHICH COUPLED WITH THE
HEATING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW/LEE TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.  MLCAPES FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG SHOULD
BE IN PLACE BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON SRN ND SWD ACROSS SD.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE LOW. STORMS WILL CONTINUE EWD AND DEVELOP DOWN THE SURFACE
TROUGH INTO WRN SD AS COLD FRONT PUSHES EWD INTO WRN HIGH PLAINS.

STRONG VEERING SHEAR PROFILES WITH SFC-6KM SHEAR INCREASING TO 50KT
BY LATE AFTERNOON SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS PARTICULARLY NRN
SD INTO ND.  AN ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT INCLUDING ISOLATED TORNADOES
WILL BE GREATEST WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPS.  STORMS SHOULD
EVOLVE INTO A SEVERE MCS DURING EVENING DEVELOPING INTO  PRIMARILY A
WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS STORM MODE BECOMES MORE LINEAR.

...CENTRAL PLAINS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASED DRAMATICALLY OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH 70S DEWPOINTS NWD INTO NEB ATTM.  WEAK TROUGH IN SRN
BRANCH COUPLED WITH WARM ADVECTION ON THE 30-40 KT SLY NOCTURNAL LLJ
RESULTING IN THE EXTENSIVE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NOW OVER ERN KS/MO.


THESE STORMS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY WEAKEN INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
WHILE MOVING EWD AWAY FROM THE DRY LINE WHICH WILL BE LOCATED FROM
WRN NEB SWD THRU WRN KS TO ALONG WRN OK/TX BORDER.  STRONG HEATING
WILL OCCUR WRN HIGH PLAINS TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 90S
WHILE DEWPOINTS E OF DRY LINE RISE TO ABOVE 70F.  THIS WILL RESULT
IN A VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES ABOVE 3000
J/KG COMMON BY MID AFTERNOON KS AND A LITTLE LESS IN NEB.  THE CAP
HAS INCREASED SOME SINCE SUNDAY...HOWEVER SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE STRONGLY HEATED DRY LINE WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  WITH LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN
8C/KM AND A VEERING SHEAR PROFILE...ALBEIT SOMEWHAT WEAK DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...AT LEAST ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL DEVELOP.  LARGE HAIL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE PRIOR
TO SUNSET.

SEVERE THREAT WILL DECREASE SOME AFTER DARK...HOWEVER WITH A 30-40KT
LLJ THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE ACTIVE AND POSSIBLY SEVERE GIVEN
THE AIR MASS QUALITY...MUCH OF THE NIGHT CENTRAL PLAINS.

..HALES/BANACOS.. 08/23/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.