[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 222001
SWODY1
SPC AC 221958

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT SUN AUG 22 2004

VALID 222000Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N
OLF 30 SSE GDV 35 W 4BQ 35 WNW COD 20 NE MQM 30 S 3DU 50 NNW FCA.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N
CSM 10 SW CSM 25 WNW LTS 40 WNW CDS 25 ENE AMA 20 SSW LBL 35 SSW DDC
40 WSW P28 45 ENE GAG 35 N CSM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S ELP 20 ENE TCS
65 SSW GNT 35 ESE PGA 50 NE DRA 60 SE BIH 35 S BIH 50 WNW BIH 65 ESE
TVL 30 ENE NFL 20 SE WMC 75 SSE 4LW 30 WSW LMT 20 NNE OTH ...CONT...
65 NNW DVL 45 NNE ATY 10 N RWF 35 NW IWD ...CONT... 30 E TOL 30 SSE
MMO 25 SSW PIA ALN 20 ENE CGI 60 E MKL 10 S CSV 35 NNE TYS 50 E TRI
25 NE CLT 35 N HSE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF MT...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF PORTIONS OF
THE TX PNHDL AND WRN OK...

...MT...
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VIGOROUS VORTICITY MAXIMA
LIFTING NEWD ACROSS ERN WA WITH AN ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN SWLY MID
LEVEL WINDS OF 45-55KTS NOW SPREADING EWD ACROSS WRN MT. AT THE
SURFACE...RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM IS RESULTING IN A
REGION OF CONCENTRATED PRESSURE FALLS AND CYCLOGENESIS E OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. MOREOVER...BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER HAVE ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S OVER PORTIONS OF WRN MT AND WHEN
COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S IS RESULTING
IN MLCAPES OF AROUND 500 J/KG. CONTINUED HEATING/DESTABILIZATION
WILL OCCUR OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH AN EXPECTED
MARKED INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. REGIONAL VWPS
ALREADY INDICATE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD 2076/WW 774.

UPSCALE GROWTH OF STORMS INTO CLUSTERS OR AN MCS IS ANTICIPATED
OVERNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS SPREADING EWD
ACROSS CNTRL/ERN MT. STORMS MAY SHIFT E OF THIS AREA EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER WEAKER INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT.

...TX PNHDL/WRN OK...
STRONG INSOLATION IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND
RATHER STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /REF 12Z ABQ/DDC/MAF SOUNDINGS/
ARE ALLOWING AIRMASS TO DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON TO S OF VORTICITY
MAXIMA OVER SWRN KS. LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS HAVE VEERED IN RESPONSE
TO ARCING CLOUD BAND LIFTING NEWD INTO S-CNTRL KS/N-CNTRL OK.
HOWEVER...LATEST OBSERVATIONS DO INDICATE BACKING WINDS OVER WRN
OK/ERN TX PNHDL...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.
MOREOVER...CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A GROWING CUMULUS FIELD
ALONG WEAK CONFLUENCE LINE OVER THE NERN TX PNHDL AS WELL AS NEAR A
LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER SERN CO.

CONTINUED BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING SHOULD AID IN FURTHER AIRMASS
DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1000-2000
J/KG WITH A DECREASING CAP. IT APPEARS GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE OVER THE ERN TX PNHDL INTO WRN OK WHERE VICI OK
PROFILER AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A NARROW CHANNEL OF
COMPARATIVELY STRONGER MID AND HIGH-LEVEL WINDS CURVING CYCLONICALLY
AROUND SWRN KS DISTURBANCE. POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES WILL EXIST WITH ANY STORMS DEVELOPING IN THIS CORRIDOR
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CNTRL WY HAS LEAD TO A GENERAL
INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER WY AND PORTIONS
OF WRN AND CNTRL CO. MEANWHILE...CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED DOWNSTREAM
AIRMASS E OF LEE TROUGH...DEVELOPING FROM SWRN NEB SWD INTO ERN
CO...TO WARM/DESTABILIZE. CONTINUED DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODEST BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW
MLCAPES TO INCREASE TO 1000-2000 J/KG E OF LEE TROUGH LATER TODAY.
WITH APPROACH OF DISTURBANCE FROM THE W...EXPECT STORMS TO INTENSIFY
AS THEY MOVE OFF HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. IT APPEARS THAT RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WILL BE THE PRIMARY FACTOR LIMITING MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. NONETHELESS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS OR HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

...IA/ERN NEB/SWRN WI...
LATEST ETA/RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PORTION OF FRONT FROM SWRN/CNTRL WI
INTO NERN NEB MAY BE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SUPPORT THIS NOTION TO SOME
DEGREE WITH DEVELOPING CUMULUS FIELDS ACROSS NRN IA. AIRMASS S OF
THIS BOUNDARY IS DESTABILIZING THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST
INSTABILITY EXPECTED OVER ERN NEB/WRN IA. HOWEVER...CURRENT VWPS
INDICATE STRONGER WIND FIELDS FARTHER TO THE NE OVER NRN/CNTRL WI.
GIVEN THIS OFFSET IN SHEAR AND INSTABILITY AND RATHER WEAK
CONVERGENCE...LIKELIHOOD OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH ANY DEVELOPING
STORMS REMAINS ISOLATED AT BEST.

...AL/GA...
SMALL MCS OVER WRN/CNTRL AL IS MOVING EWD AT 20-30KTS ALONG RESIDUAL
E-W FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS EWD INTO E-CNTRL SC. DOWNSTREAM
AIRMASS ACROSS ERN AL AND CNTRL/SRN GA IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT A CONTINUED EWD MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH WIND FIELDS REMAIN RELATIVELY
WEAK /PER REGIONAL VWPS/ ORGANIZED COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM
WILL BE CAPABLE OF AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO.

..MEAD.. 08/22/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.