[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 221625
SWODY1
SPC AC 221622

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 AM CDT SUN AUG 22 2004

VALID 221630Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNW
GGW 20 SSE GDV 30 WNW 4BQ 40 S BIL 40 NNW WEY 30 NNW HLN 55 WNW CTB.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW
END 20 NW FSI 15 SSE LTS 55 NNW CDS 60 S LBL 20 SE LBL 10 NNE DDC 50
ENE DDC 30 SW ICT 25 SSW END.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E TOL 25 SSE MMO
30 NNE UIN 25 W STL 20 ENE CGI 60 E MKL 10 S CSV 35 NNE TYS 50 E TRI
25 NE CLT 35 N HSE ...CONT... 65 NNW DVL 45 NNE ATY 30 E RWF 20 ENE
IWD ...CONT... 15 S ELP 20 ENE TCS 65 SSW GNT 50 E SGU 50 NE DRA 60
SE BIH 35 S BIH 50 WNW BIH 65 ESE TVL 30 NNW U31 40 ENE WMC 70 N WMC
25 N LMT 20 NNE OTH.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF MONTANA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WRN OK/ERN TX PANHANDLE AND
PORTIONS OF SRN KS...

...MONTANA...

COLD UPR LOW MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN B.C. TODAY WITH ATTENDANT
VIGOROUS NEGATIVELY TILTED S/WV TROUGH INLAND ACROSS WRN WA/OR ATTM.
TROUGH WILL ROTATE ENEWD ACROSS WRN MT AND SRN ID DURING AFTERNOON
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG 50-60KT MID LEVEL WIND MAX.  RATHER MOIST PAC
AIR MASS SPREADING NEWD AHEAD OF TROUGH WITH ONGOING EMBEDDED
CONVECTION CURRENTLY NERN ORE INTO FAR WRN MT.

AT THE SURFACE CANADIAN COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SWD INTO NRN/ERN MT E
OF DIVIDE...WHILE PAC FRONT AT 15Z APPROACHING GEG THEN SWWD INTO
SRN OR.  SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SWRN MT WITH APPROACH OF
S/WV TROUGH WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING E OF DIVIDE GIVEN AVAILABLE
MOISTURE FOR MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG. RATHER THAN SURFACE FRONT THE
EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL LIKELY BE ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF DEEP LAYER CLOUDINESS NOW SPREADING INTO WRN MT.
THIS IS A RESULT OF LARGE SCALE UVV'S WITH TROUGH AND MID LEVEL
COOLING NOTED AT 700MB BETWEEN GEG AND GTF AT 12Z.

WITH 40-50 KT OF SFC-6KM SHEAR ACCOMPANYING S/WV
TROUGH...STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL GIVEN THE 7-8 C/KM LAPSE
RATES AND FAST STORM MOTION.  SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS AS STORMS MOVE EWD INTO MT PLAINS AS
CANADIAN FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THIS AREA ENHANCES LOW LEVEL SHEAR. ANY
SUPERCELL WOULD INCREASE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH LARGE HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

...WRN OK AND VICINITY...
SRN BRANCH OF WLYS EXTENDS EWD ACROSS NRN MEX AND SRN PLAINS.  WEAK 
TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS TX PANHANDLE WITH UPSTREAM CLOSED LOW OFF
NRN BAJA.  MCV FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION LOCATED OK PANHANDLE ATTM
WILL DRIFT SLOWLY ENEWD AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH THIS PM. SLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW 15-25 KT IS TRANSPORTING A VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS
NWD INTO OK AND SRN KS ATTM WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO AOA 70F.  WITH
LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7C/KM AND EXPECTED HEATING SUFFICIENT TO
WEAKEN CAP AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO 90F OR ABOVE...THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON SURFACE
BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH MCV.  WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING TO 3000 J/KG
AND MARGINAL SHEAR...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY EARLY IN THE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL GIVEN
MARGINAL SHEAR. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EVENING
POSSIBLY EVOLVING INTO AN MCS VICINITY CENTRAL KS/OK BORDER AREA
WITH CONTINUED THREAT OF LOCAL DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL UNTIL LATE
EVENING.

...REMAINDER OF PLAINS...
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AGAIN TODAY ALONG WITH A WEAK CAP BY MID
AFTERNOON FOR ISOLATED PULSE STRONG/SEVERE STORMS FROM BIG BEND NWD
INTO KS.  OVERNIGHT LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TO 30-35 KT CONTINUING
THE NWD INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.  WARM ADVECTION ACROSS
STALLED CANADIAN FRONTAL ZONE NEB/SD WILL SUPPORT OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WITH ISOLATED SEVERE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
INCREASING AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
STREAMS NWD.

..HALES/BANACOS.. 08/22/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.