[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 230108
SWODY1
SPC AC 230105

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0805 PM CDT SUN AUG 22 2004

VALID 230100Z - 231200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E P07 30 E ROW 15
SE GUP 20 SSW U17 20 NNE U24 70 SW ELY 45 NE BIH 45 S NFL 40 NNW LOL
45 NW EKO 35 SE BOI 45 WSW 27U 50 NE S80 45 NNW FCA ...CONT... 80 NE
ISN 55 NE BIS 30 W MSP 30 SE ANJ ...CONT... 20 ESE MTC 30 NE MMO 25
W PIA 10 W STL 20 SE POF 25 SSW MSL 30 NW ATL 20 NNW AGS 15 ENE ILM.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CENTRAL MT SEWD ACROSS WRN SD INTO PARTS OF NRN NEB...
STRONG UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING EWD ACROSS THE NWRN CONUS
ATTM...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED 50 TO 55 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK NOW
CROSSING THE NRN GREAT BASIN.

STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS ERN ID / NRN UT NWD ACROSS WRN WY INTO
CENTRAL MT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...ALTHOUGH MARGINAL INSTABILITY
REMAINS A LIMITING FACTOR IN TERMS OF OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.  WILL
MAINTAIN LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...BUT
THIS THREAT SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF THROUGH THE EVENING. 

OTHER STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH
EXTENDS FROM SERN MT SEWD ACROSS WRN SD INTO NRN NEB -- AHEAD OF
SECONDARY VORT MAX INDICATED ATTM OVER NERN WY.  GREATER INSTABILITY
EXISTS ACROSS THIS REGION /EVENING RAPID CITY SD RAOB INDICATES
AROUND 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/...BUT WEAKER MID-LEVEL FLOW IS
OBSERVED ACROSS THIS AREA.  WITH INCREASING SELY LOW-LEVEL
JET...SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND
THUS A LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT.  HOWEVER...WITH STORMS
CROSSING ONTO THE COOL SIDE OF SURFACE BOUNDARY AND BECOMING
INCREASINGLY ELEVATED WITH TIME...THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING.  LOW-END THREAT MAY LINGER THE
LONGEST ACROSS N CENTRAL NEB WHERE SURFACE BOUNDARY -- AND THUS
INSTABILITY AXIS -- IS ORIENTED MORE W-E.  HOWEVER...DESPITE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...WIND FIELD SHOULD REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THIS
REGION THUS NOT WARRANTING INSERTION OF SLIGHT RISK.

...WRN KS / WRN OK WWD TO ERN CO / NERN NM...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING EWD ACROSS ERN CO / NERN NM ATTM
INTO RELATIVELY MOIST / UNSTABLE AIRMASS.  ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND
FIELD IS FAIRLY WEAK ATTM WITH MID LEVEL FLOW GENERALLY 1O TO 20
KT...LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THIS EVENING ACROSS WRN N
TX AND THE TX PANHANDLE INTO OK / KS.  RESULTING INCREASE IN WARM
ADVECTION / UVV AND SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT THE CONTINUATION OF STORMS -- AND A LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE
THREAT -- THROUGH THE EVENING.

..GOSS.. 08/23/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.