[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 221257
SWODY1
SPC AC 221254

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 AM CDT SUN AUG 22 2004

VALID 221300Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNW
GGW 20 SSE GDV 30 WNW 4BQ 40 S BIL 20 SE HLN 50 SSW CTB 55 WNW CTB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W MRF 55 ESE ALM
65 SSW GNT 30 WSW CDC 30 S U31 50 WNW SVE 30 SSW MHS 55 ESE EKA 15
ENE EKA 50 E OTH 15 SW AST ...CONT... 65 NNW DVL 45 NNE ATY 15 NNW
MKT 20 ENE IWD ...CONT... 25 NE TOL 35 ESE MLI 20 NNW IRK 30 WNW COU
10 SSW MVN 30 SW CKV 35 W CSV 45 NW HSS 10 S HKY 35 N HSE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE BTV 20 SW SYR
25 NW JHW.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN MT...

...CNTRL/ERN MT...
LEADING EDGE OF STRONGEST VERTICAL MOTION/HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PAC NW UPPER TROUGH WERE BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO ID AND
SHOULD TRANSLATE ENEWD INTO WRN MT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
ENHANCE THE DIURNAL CYCLE AND MOUNTAIN CONVECTION WILL GROW INTO
NUMEROUS HIGH-BASED TSTMS BY MID-AFTERNOON OVER ERN ID/WRN MT/WRN
WY.  SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL EXIST VCNTY BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WHERE A ZONE OF NEAR 50F DEW POINTS WILL EXTEND FROM
SERN-CNTRL-NCNTRL MT.  MLCAPES WILL GENERALLY STAY AOB 1000 J/KG. 
COMBO OF INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
TROUGH AND TSTMS ROOTING INTO A MORE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ON THE
ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS WILL LEAD TO GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION/
ORGANIZATION OF THE STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  SEVERE WIND GUSTS
OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...WITH THE
STORM MODE FAVORING MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES AND PERHAPS ISOLD
SUPERCELLS.  ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ENEWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF MT
AND INTO THE WRN ND AND ADJACENT ALTA/SASK OVERNIGHT.  BUT...GIVEN
MORE STABLE AIR MASS FARTHER EAST...THE SEVERE RISKS SHOULD BE ISOLD
AT BEST.  

...UPPER MS VLY AREA...
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE NRN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MS
VLY REGIONS THIS MORNING WILL TRANSLATE SEWD INTO THE MIDDLE/LOWER
GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT.  ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE
SEWD...BUT BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN LATER TODAY AND BECOME SITUATED ACROSS
CNTRL/SRN WI AND WWD ACROSS NRN IA.  SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO ENHANCE WARM ADVECTION ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER
MS VLY AREA AND MAY AID IN TSTM INITIATION/MAINTENANCE FROM
CNTRL/SRN WI WWD INTO NRN IA.  SBCAPES WILL APPROACH 2500 J/KG AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...BUT STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 6KM WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS. MOREOVER...THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
TROUGH.  THUS...ENVIRONMENT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LESS FAVORABLE TO
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS.  THUS...ONLY LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR ISOLD SEVERE HAIL/WIND ARE JUSTIFIED. 

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
INCREASING WLY LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW IN WAKE OF A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING
INTO THE SRN PLAINS WILL LIKELY SHARPEN THE LEE-TROUGH/DRYLINE FROM
SWRN NEB SWD TO THE CAPROCK IN THE TX PNHDL THIS AFTERNOON.  TSTMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE ALONG THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE... BUT IT IS
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHERE...IF ANY...GREATER COVERAGE WILL BE
LOCATED . LATEST SREF OFFERS MANY SOLUTIONS AND APPEARS TO CONFIRM
THE LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY.  THE GREATER PROBABILITY FOR TSTMS
MAY EXIST OVER THE TX/OK PNHDLS AND SWRN KS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
WEAK MIDLEVEL IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.  THOUGH THE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK...MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG SUGGEST
THAT MULTI-CELL PULSE SEVERE /PERHAPS ISOLD WEAKLY ROTATING
UPDRAFTS/ COULD OCCUR WITH ISOLD LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUST.  THE
SEVERE THREATS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE LATE EVENING WITH ONSET OF
DIURNAL COOLING.

..RACY/CROSBIE.. 08/22/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.