[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 211946
SWODY1
SPC AC 211943

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 PM CDT SAT AUG 21 2004

VALID 212000Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE
CRE 20 S FAY 25 NE DOV 25 ENE ACY.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW
ISP 15 S PSM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE CMX 35 W CWA
20 ENE MCW 35 ENE SUX 50 W YKN 40 SE PHP 40 N RAP 20 N 81V 30 S GCC
45 N LAR CYS 45 NNW IML 25 NNW MCK 50 E LBL 10 WNW CSM 50 ESE SPS 50
ENE PBF 45 E BNA 40 ENE CRW 35 S IPT 10 WNW LEB 35 NW EPM ...CONT...
35 ESE DUG 50 ENE PHX 45 N NID 50 SE FAT 25 E MER 30 W TVL 15 NE SVE
85 E 4LW BNO 40 SSW RDM OTH.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
SERN NEW ENGLAND...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM
SRN NJ SWD ALONG THE NC COAST...

...SERN NEW ENGLAND...
STRONG TO SEVERE LINE OF TSTMS IS IN PROGRESS THIS AFTERNOON FROM N
OF BOS TO NEAR ISP. 40-50KT 500MB WINDS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT EMBEDDED
BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED HAIL EWD
THROUGH CAPE COD.

FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD 2071.

...SERN VA AND ERN NC...
ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE OCCURRING THIS
AFTERNOON FROM THE MOUTH OF CHESAPEAKE BAY SWD ALONG THE NC COASTAL
PLAIN. MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS LARGELY BEING
FOCUSED ALONG CONFLUENCE LINE AND WITHIN AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY
MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. MODERATELY STRONG WSWLY LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS OBSERVED ON LOCAL VWPS SHOULD SUPPORT EMBEDDED
BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.


...NRN PLAINS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER CNTRL/SRN
SASKATCHEWAN WITH DOWNSTREAM REGION OF ASCENT SPREADING EWD/SEWD
ACROSS CNTRL/SRN MANITOBA AND WRN/CNTRL ND. WHILE BOUNDARY-LAYER
REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S...THERMAL AXIS HAS DEVELOPED FROM SURFACE LOW OVER WRN ND SWD
ACROSS WRN SD. THIS HEATING IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES IS RESULTING IN SBCAPES OF 400-700 J/KG.

ONGOING BAND OF MAINLY ELEVATED STORMS W OF THE MO RIVER WILL LIKELY
BECOME MORE SURFACE-BASED WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON FROM VICINITY OF
SURFACE LOW WSWWD ALONG COLD FRONT AND SWD ALONG LEE TROUGH.
DEEPLY-MIXED CHARACTER OF BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS WARM SECTOR SUGGESTS
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS MAY TEND TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT
FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO NRN/CNTRL MN ALONG STRENGTHENING LLJ AXIS.
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK...EFFECTIVELY LIMITING THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH MODERATELY STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES /REF 12Z DNR/ABQ SOUNDINGS/ IS ALLOWING AIRMASS TO
DESTABILIZE E OF HIGHER TERRAIN AND LEE TROUGH WITH MLCAPES OF
500-1500 J/KG. CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO
FURTHER DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 2000
J/KG AT SOME LOCATIONS WITH A WEAKENING CAP. STORMS CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD INTENSIFY AS THEY ENCOUNTER
STRONGER INSTABILITY ALONG ADJACENT PLAINS WITH THE MOST INTENSE
STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED WINDS/HAIL.

FARTHER S AND E...MESOANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW
SEVERAL BOUNDARIES PRESENT ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL/SRN TX. MODIFICATION
OF 12Z MAF/DRT SOUNDINGS FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS YIELDS MLCAPES OF
2500-3500 J/KG AND A DECREASING CAP. THOUGH REGIONAL VWPS/PROFILES
INDICATE RELATIVELY WEAK MID AND HIGH-LEVEL WIND
FIELDS...CONSIDERABLE VEERING WITH HEIGHT IS BEING OBSERVED INVOF
THESE BOUNDARIES. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL.

...CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA...
AFTERNOON RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES NE-SW ORIENTED CONVECTIVE BAND FROM
NE OF ORL TO E OF SRQ. TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S WHEN
COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S IS RESULTING IN A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO THE S OF ONGOING STORMS. CONTINUED INTERACTION
OF THIS CONVECTIVE BAND WITH BOTH W AND E SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES
SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED WIND/HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.

..MEAD.. 08/21/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.