[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 211608
SWODY1
SPC AC 211605

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1105 AM CDT SAT AUG 21 2004

VALID 211630Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW
ILM 25 NE FAY 20 NE RDU 25 S DCA 30 WNW EWR 30 E POU 20 SE BOS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE DUG 50 ENE PHX
45 N NID 50 SE FAT 25 E MER 30 W TVL 15 NE SVE 85 E 4LW BNO 40 SSW
RDM OTH ...CONT... 25 SSE CMX 35 W CWA 20 ENE MCW 35 ENE SUX 50 W
YKN 40 SE PHP 40 N RAP 20 N 81V 30 S GCC 45 N LAR CYS 45 NNW IML 25
NNW MCK 50 E LBL 10 WNW CSM 50 ESE SPS 50 ENE PBF 45 E BNA 40 ENE
CRW 35 S IPT 10 WNW LEB 35 NW EPM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN NEW ENGLAND SWD THRU MID
ATLANTIC STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN TEMPORARILY DEAMPLIFYING ACROSS CONUS AS
DEEP LOW HUDSON BAY AND ASSOCIATED STRONG WIND FIELDS SHIFT NEWD
AWAY FROM NERN U.S. A VIGOROUS TROUGH DEVELOPS SEWD TO OFF PAC NW
COAST BY SUN AM WITH A FAST MOVING LOW AMPLITUDE S/WV DOWNSTREAM
MOVING FROM SRN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA TO VICINITY NRN MN BY
LATE TONIGHT.

COLD FRONT MAKING SLOW EWD PROGRESS EXTENDS FROM WRN NEW ENGLAND
SWWD ALONG APPALACHIANS TRAILING ACROSS NRN AL/TN BORDER CENTRAL AR
INTO SWRN TX.  EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS PRECEDES FRONT SRN ENGLAND
SWWD...HOWEVER E OF BLUE RIDGE INTO VA/NC STRONG HEATING IS
OCCURRING THIS MORNING WITH LITTLE INITIAL CLOUD COVER.

A VERY MOIST AIR MASS AHEAD OF FRONT FROM ERN DELMARVA SWD BECOMING
VERY UNSTABLE THIS MORNING.

LITTLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AVAILABLE AHEAD OF SYSTEM MOVING EWD
ACROSS SRN CANADIAN PROVINCES...HOWEVER STRONG WARM ADVECTION
COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT STRONG CONVECTION BY
TONIGHT.

SLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SRN HIGH PLAINS WITH LEE TROUGHING WILL
ALLOW MOISTURE TO WORK NWD TODAY.

...SRN NEW ENGLAND SWD TO MID ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN...
WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S AND TEMPERATURES RISING THRU
THE 80S...THE AIR MASS IS BECOMING VERY UNSTABLE E OF BLUE RIDGE
ATTM WITH MLCAPES TO 3000 J/KG.  SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 30-35KT SUPPORTIVE
FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION WHILE SFC-1KM SHEAR AROUND 20KT GIVEN THE
LARGE INSTABILITY ALSO SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. CAP DISSIPATES BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EWD ACROSS COASTAL PLAIN.

REF MCD 2068
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...POSSIBLY AS FAR N AS SRN NEW
ENGLAND  AS TD'S TO LOW/MID 70S RESULT IN MLCAPES TO 1500 J/KG CT/RI
WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONGER FROM 40-45KT ALONG WITH SOME
VEERING IN LOW LEVELS. PRIMARY THREAT THIS FAR N WOULD BE WIND
DAMAGE AS LINE OF STORMS ACROSS ERN PA CONTINUES TO INCREASE EWD
DURING AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL DETAILS IN MCD 2068.

...FL...
REF MCD 2067
PULSE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS A LITTLE GREATER ACROSS FL PENINSULA TODAY
GIVEN THE RELATIVELY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS AND VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
 DETAILS ARE AVAILABLE IN MCD 2067.

...NRN PLAINS...
WITH LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE...ABOUT THE ONLY CONCERN WITH THE
STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF SYSTEM MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA WILL BE MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS. 
STORMS WILL INCREASE IN THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW
AND COLD FRONT EWD ACROSS NRN PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.  WITH LAPSE RATES AROUND 8C/KM AND INVERTED V TYPE
SOUNDINGS STRONG WINDS WILL BE LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH BASED
STORMS THAT WILL BE MOVING EWD ACROSS ND/NRN SD LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY TONIGHT.  MINIMAL CAPE PRECLUDES A RISK AREA ATTM.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WORKING NWD WITH LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING HIGH
PLAINS.  WHILE SHEAR IS WEAK...AIR MASS DEVELOPS MLCAPES FROM 1500
TO 2000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH MINIMAL CAP.  A FEW
STRONG/SEVERE PULSE STORMS ARE LIKELY AS FAR N AS SERN CO.

..HALES/BANACOS.. 08/21/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.