[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 220059
SWODY1
SPC AC 220056

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 PM CDT SAT AUG 21 2004

VALID 220100Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE
GLD 50 NNW GCK CDS INK 20 NNE P07 40 WSW P07 30 NNE MRF 15 ENE CNM
45 SSW CVS 15 N CAO 15 NNE LAA 30 SSE GLD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW DMN 15 ESE SVC
40 ESE IGM 30 NE BFL 25 E MER 45 WNW TVL 15 ESE LMT 20 WSW BKE 15 W
3DU 40 N 3DU 90 WNW FCA ...CONT... 85 NE MQT 35 W CWA 20 ENE MCW 30
NNW OMA 15 NW CNK 40 N P28 20 WNW END 40 SW TUL 45 NNW HOT 15 SE TUP
15 S AVL 20 SSW GSO 20 ENE WAL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SRN HIGH PLAINS...

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SWD INTO W TX...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS SURGED SWD AND WWD ACROSS MUCH OF TX...WITH
BOUNDARY NOW EXTENDING FROM THE MIDDLE TX COASTAL REGION WWD ACROSS
THE HILL COUNTRY AND THEN ARCING NWWD FROM NEAR DRT TO NEAR MAF.  SW
OF THIS BOUNDARY -- AND NWD INTO ERN CO / WRN KS --
MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXISTS...WITH 1000 TO 2000 J/KG
MEAN-LAYER CAPE INDICATED.

RELATIVELY WEAK / WNWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION IS
RESULTING IN DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
STORMS.  THE MOST FAVORABLE WIND FIELD IS INDICATED ACROSS W TX
WHERE 15 KT SURFACE SELY WINDS BENEATH MID-LEVEL WNWLYS IS RESULTING
IN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION.  LARGE HAIL WITH
A COUPLE OF THE MORE INTENSE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT...WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE.

AS LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING...SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE
DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD MAY OFFSET SLOW DIURNAL LOW-LEVEL
STABILIZATION SUCH THAT ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT LINGERS THROUGH THE
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

...ERN CAROLINAS...
BROKEN LINE OF WEAKENING STORMS CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NERN NC / NRN SC ATTM...SOUTH OF WHICH 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
MEAN-LAYER CAPE REMAINS.  

DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING WITH
TIME...AND THIS COMBINED WITH DIURNAL STABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY
LAYER SUGGESTS THAT ONLY A VERY LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT
REMAINS ACROSS THIS REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

..GOSS.. 08/22/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.