[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 210106
SWODY1
SPC AC 210103

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0803 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2004

VALID 210100Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE
FST 25 E INK 35 NNW MAF 40 SW ABI 20 SSE ACT 55 SE AUS 50 ENE COT 40
ENE DRT 25 ENE FST.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE
DOV 10 W NHK 25 SSE MRB 40 E AOO 45 ENE BFD 25 S UCA 10 SSE RUT 20
WNW PWM 35 SE AUG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW BML 40 SSE HUL
...CONT... 55 N GGW 35 N BIL 20 ESE WRL 60 WSW RAP 40 NE AIA 35 ENE
AKO 25 W LHX 30 WSW DHT 20 ENE CDS 10 NNE ADM 35 W UNO 40 NNE EVV 35
WNW CMH ERI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE CRP 35 NW LRD
...CONT... 55 SSW DMN 45 NNW DUG 55 E BLH 45 NW NID 15 NNW FAT 40 W
TVL 20 SE RBL 50 WNW RBL 35 ENE CEC 40 E EUG 55 WSW PDT 25 E EPH 40
NNE 4OM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NERN U.S.
AND SRN NEW ENGLAND...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF SW AND S CNTRL
TX...

...NERN STATES AND NEW ENGLAND...

EARLY THIS EVENING A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CNTRL MAINE SWWD
THROUGH SE NY...NRN PA AND CNTRL OH. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS
FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND WWD INTO CNTRL PA WHERE IT INTERSECTS A N-S
ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE WARM SECTOR S OF THESE BOUNDARIES
REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. A
BROAD FETCH OF 45-50 KT MID LEVEL FLOW ON SRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER
TROUGH ANCHORED OVER ERN CANADA HAS MAINTAINED SUFFICIENT 0-6 KM
SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS OBSERVED MOVING INTO WRN PA. LOW LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE INTO PARTS OF
THE NERN U.S. AND SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS
MAY ENHANCE LIFT AND PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE
DEVELOPING INTO MUCH OF TONIGHT. THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND AND HAIL MAY PERSIST INTO MID-LATE EVENING. HOWEVER...THE
STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING
SUGGESTS OVERALL ACTIVITY SHOULD UNDERGO A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
INTENSITY.


...TX...

A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM ERN TX N OF LUFKIN WWD TO S OF SAN
ANGELO AND FARTHER W INTO SWRN TX JUST S OF MIDLAND. THE ATMOSPHERE
ALONG AND S OF THIS FEATURE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE
FROM 2500 TO 3000 J/KG. STORMS THAT DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON IN
CONVERGENCE AXIS ALONG THE BOUNDARY PERSIST OVER NERN PORTIONS OF
THE TRANS PECOS REGION. LARGE SCALE FORCING AND LOW LEVEL FLOW
REMAINS RATHER WEAK...SO IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW LONG ACTIVITY CAN
PERSIST GIVEN NOCTURNAL COOLING AND STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER.
CURRENT RADAR DATA SHOW THE CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER MASON AND KIMBLE
COUNTIES HAVE BECOME FORWARD PROPAGATING...AND SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OF
10-15 KT MIGHT BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN ENOUGH LOW LEVEL STORM
RELATIVE INFLOW AND CONVERGENCE ALONG LEADING OUTFLOW TO SUSTAIN
SEVERE STORMS NEXT FEW HOURS.


...SERN U.S...

CLUSTERS OF STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH EWD MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CONTINUE THROUGH PARTS OF AL/GA AND SRN MS THIS EVENING. VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES ARE WEAK AND SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL CONVECTION.
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FROM ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS NEXT 1-2
HOURS. HOWEVER...OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE FOR ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES.

..DIAL.. 08/21/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.