[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 201934
SWODY1
SPC AC 201931

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2004

VALID 202000Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW
P07 10 SW FST 30 NNW HOB 40 W LBB 40 W ABI 35 WNW CLL 45 ESE AUS 10
E SAT 45 SE DRT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE
ACY 35 SSW CHO 15 ENE BKW 30 S PKB 35 NNE ZZV 20 S ROC 15 WNW LEB 30
SSE AUG.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S
TUP 30 NNE TUP 60 N MSL 20 SE BNA 30 SSW CSV 15 W RMG 20 SW ANB 30
WSW TCL 25 S TUP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW BML 40 SSE HUL
...CONT... 50 N GGW 80 WNW MLS 35 ESE SHR 25 W RAP 55 S PHP 30 NE
MHN 10 SSE LBF 35 SSW MCK 60 ENE LAA 20 WSW LBL 20 SE GAG 35 S END
15 N TUL 10 S JLN 45 NE VIH 20 ENE CMI 35 ESE DTW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE DMN 30 S SAD
50 SSE IGM 45 NW NID 15 NNW FAT 50 NNE SAC 20 SE RBL 50 WNW RBL 35
ENE CEC 40 E EUG 55 WSW PDT 25 E EPH 40 NNE 4OM ...CONT... 50 ENE
CRP 35 NW LRD.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE NERN STATES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
PARTS OF SRN TN AND NRN AL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF TX...

...DELMARVA INTO NEW ENGLAND...
18Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATED PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE FROM CON
SWWD TO NEAR IPT TO A WEAK MESOLOW N OF ZZV. TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO MID 70S HAVE ALLOWED AIRMASS S OF THIS
BOUNDARY AND AHEAD OF LARGE CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE OH VALLEY TO
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WITHIN THIS UNSTABLE AIR AND ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY WHERE
CAP HAS BEEN LOCALLY ERODED FROM PARTS OF CNTRL PA/S-CNTRL NY NEWD
INTO NRN MA/VT. CONTINUED HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY-LAYER
SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THESE SAME GENERAL AREAS.

THOUGH LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS REMAIN VEERED TO WLY OR SWLY...PRESENCE
OF 40-50KT MID-LEVEL FLOW IS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT SPEED SHEAR TO
SUPPORT ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONALLY...FAVORABLY LOW LFC/LCL HEIGHTS
AND MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INVOF FRONTAL ZONE SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WITH ANY SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.

ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE APPALACHIANS OF WV/WRN VA MAY
POSE AN DAMAGING WIND OR HAIL THREAT AS THEY MOVE/DEVELOP EWD INTO 
MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS NRN VA. THOUGH
WIND SHEAR IS WEAKER THAN POINTS TO THE N...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
DICTATES INCLUSION OF CATEGORICAL RISK.

...SRN TN/NRN AL...
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE
INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
EVOLVING FROM W OF MSL TO W OF TCL. MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THIS
ACTIVITY IS BEING FOCUSED ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITHIN A ZONE OF
CONCENTRATED PRESSURE FALLS. MODEST SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 30-40KTS
IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /I.E. MLCAPES OF
1000-2000 J/KG/ SHOULD SUPPORT A CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION OF THIS
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT.

...TX...
PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FRONT EXTENDS FROM E-CNTRL NM EWD ACROSS N TX THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM N OF CLL TO N OF
AUS TO SW OF SJT. GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF ANY DISCERNABLE UPSTREAM
DISTURBANCES...IT APPEARS THAT CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
AND/OR UPSLOPE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL/ERN NM WILL
PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR THE INITIATION OF DEEP CONVECTION. REGIONAL
VWPS AND PROFILERS INDICATE THAT STRONGER MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE
SLOWLY SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION. HOWEVER...STRONG
VEERING WITH HEIGHT /PER 19Z SJT VWP/ WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE
STORMS /INCLUDING MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES/ CAPABLE OF MAINLY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

...GREAT BASIN...
STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF VIGOROUS VORTICITY MAXIMUM TRANSLATING SEWD ACROSS NRN NV.
THOUGH INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK...PRESENCE OF STEEP
LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY PROMOTE A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL.

..MEAD.. 08/20/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.