[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 210540
SWODY1
SPC AC 210538

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 AM CDT SAT AUG 21 2004

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNW ANJ 35 SSE FRM
45 WSW YKN 35 ESE PHP 10 ESE REJ 10 WNW GDV 60 E BIL 30 SE WRL 20
NNE SNY 30 S HLC 40 WNW GAG 10 ENE CSM 30 SSW MLC 35 NE LIT 20 ESE
MKL 20 NNE JKL 30 NW MSV 25 NNW BML ...CONT... 15 ESE PSX 20 SE DRT
...CONT... 65 WNW MRF 45 NW GDP 65 NNW SVC 25 ENE PRC 55 WSW LAS 60
ENE MER 20 SE MHS 30 SSW ONP.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE CAROLINAS...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT ENEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...OH
VALLEY AND INTO THE NERN U.S. SATURDAY. VEERING LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW
IN WAKE OF THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE IMPETUS FOR COLD FRONT TO MOVE
EWD OFF NERN U.S. SEABOARD EARLY SATURDAY AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY EVENING. RICH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 WILL PERSIST IN WARM
SECTOR FROM THE MID ATLANTIC SWD INTO THE CAROLINAS.
HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS FROM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND MID LEVEL
ASCENT ACCOMPANYING SRN STREAM IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER THE SERN U.S.
ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT NEWD THROUGH THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR.
THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY LIMIT
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION. MOREOVER-LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME AS LOW LEVEL JET LIFTS NEWD AWAY FROM
THIS AREA DURING THE DAY. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD ALONG
AND E OF THE FRONT WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODEST UNIDIRECTIONAL
SWLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR...WITH SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
OVER PARTS OF VA AND THE CAROLINAS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME DUE TO
LOW CONFIDENCE THAT ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR TO SUPPORT A
MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT.


...SRN HIGH PLAINS...

SURFACE FRONT ACROSS TX IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE AS LEE
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND SLY FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ONCE
AGAIN BECOME AT LEAST MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN VICINITY OF WEAKENING
BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG POSSIBLE. STORMS MAY
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. HOWEVER... DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THAN ON FRIDAY. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARY TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE MAY SERVE AS LIMITING
FACTORS FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO AND NM AND IN VICINITY OF DEVELOPING
LEE TROUGH. MULTICELL STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH MID
EVENING. SEVERE THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT MORE
THAN LOW PROBABILITIES.

...NRN PLAINS THROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD INTO
THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS CONFINED TO S OF COLD
FRONT IN TX...AND THERE WILL BE INSUFFICIENT TIME FOR RICHER
MOISTURE TO ADVECT NWD INTO THIS AREA. THEREFORE...MARGINAL
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE STORMS.
STILL...MID LEVEL ASCENT WITHIN A STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL
SUPPORT HIGH BASED CONVECTION ABOVE RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYERS.
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT OVERALL
THREAT APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK.

..DIAL.. 08/21/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.