[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 201600
SWODY1
SPC AC 201557

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1057 AM CDT FRI AUG 20 2004

VALID 201630Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S
P07 10 NE FST 35 NW INK 55 N HOB 30 WSW LBB 35 SSW ABI 25 N AUS 45
ESE SAT 40 SSE DRT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW
GFL 15 SW MWN 15 NNW PSM 20 SSE BOS 20 NNE JFK 30 NNW PHL 35 E HGR
20 W EKN 50 W HTS 40 WSW DAY 35 ESE FWA 20 SSW TOL 30 NNW CLE 25 SSW
BUF 30 W SYR 35 NW GFL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N GGW 80 WNW MLS
35 ESE SHR 25 W RAP 55 S PHP 30 NE MHN 10 SSE LBF 35 SSW MCK 60 ENE
LAA 20 WSW LBL 20 SE GAG 35 S END 25 SW BVO 25 NNW JLN 10 W UIN 35 S
CGX MTC ...CONT... 35 NW BML 40 SSE HUL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE CRP 35 NW LRD
...CONT... 30 SSE DMN 30 S SAD 50 SSE IGM 45 NW NID 15 NNW FAT 50
NNE SAC 20 SE RBL 50 WNW RBL 35 ENE CEC 40 E EUG 55 WSW PDT 25 E EPH
40 NNE 4OM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS UPPER OH VALLEY EWD ACROSS SRN
NEW ENGLAND...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SOUTHWESTERN TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY DEEP LOW SFC/ALOFT OVER HUDSON BAY SLOWLY FILLING AND
MOVING NEWD.  ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS BECOME PARALLEL TO STRONG
WLYS ON S SIDE OF LOW AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SRN ME WSWWD JUST N
OF ALB AND ACROSS NWRN PA THEN WSWWD TO WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER
ECENTRAL MO. FROM MO LOW FRONT EXTENDS SWWD TO SRN OK AND WRN TX.

S OF THE FRONT FROM ERN OH VALLEY EWD ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND A VERY
MOIST AIR MASS EXISTS WITH DEWPOINTS AOA 70F. THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR
RESIDES E OF APPALACHIANS AS SFC TEMPS WARM THRU THE LOW/MID 80S.

A COUPLE WEAK TROUGHS WILL BE A FACTOR IN THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
TODAY. ONE IS MOVING EWD ACROSS NWRN TX WHILE ANOTHER NOTICEABLE IN
W/V IMAGERY DROPS SEWD INTO NRN NV.

...NERN U.S...

REF MCD 2056

HAVE SHIFTED THE SEVERE EMPHASIS EWD TO AREA OF BEST HEATING AND
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY S OF STALLED FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE LARGE AREA
OF CLOUDINESS/PCPN OVER LOWER OH VALLEY. STRONG JET MAX ROTATING EWD
ON THE S SIDE OF DEEP HUDSON BAY LOW WILL PROVIDE 40-50 KT OF SHEAR
AS FAR S AS VICINITY OF STALLED FRONT NERN U.S.

STRONG HEATING OCCURRING S OF FRONTAL ZONE WITH MINIMAL CIN
REMAINING AS OF 16Z AS MUCAPES CLIMB TO AOA 3000 J/KG. WITH
DOMINANT WLY COMPONENT...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK...THUS
CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED ON TERRAIN FEATURES AND
SUBTLE BOUNDARIES.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG AND S OF STALLED FRONT AND GRADUALLY EXPAND IN COVERAGE THRU
THE AFTERNOON. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO BE WIND DAMAGE
GIVEN THE 30-40 KT STEERING FLOW...WITH LAPSE RATES GENERALLY OF
6-6.5 C/KM AND WET BULB ZEROS ABOVE 10K FT LESS FAVORABLE FOR LARGE
HAIL. 20 KT OF SHEAR IN THE SFC-1KM LAYER ALONG WITH THE VERY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SUPERCELL POTENTIAL WHICH
WILL NOT ONLY ENHANCE THREAT OF WIND/HAIL BUT RESULT IN A THREAT OF
A COUPLE TORNADOES.

BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...STORMS LIKELY EVOLVING INTO SHORT
LINES...CLUSTERS WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS UNTIL
AFTER DARK.

...TX...
BOUNDARIES BOTH FRONTAL AND THOSE REMAINING FROM OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION WILL BE FOCUS FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. AREA OF BEST INSTABILITY AND WEAKEST CAP IN SWRN TX WILL
BE LOCATED ON SRN FRINGE OF 30-40 KT MID LEVEL WLYS THAT ARE MOVING
ACROSS NWRN TX ATTM.  ALTHOUGH SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL...PULSE SEVERE
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP VICINITY OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON.  WITH MUCAPES TO ABOVE 3000 J/KG AND LAPSE RATES IN
EXCESS OF 7C/KM...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS ARE LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH A FEW OF THE STORMS.  SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD
DECREASE SHORTLY AFTER DARK GIVEN THE MARGINAL UPPER SUPPORT AND
MINIMAL SHEAR.

...NRN NV/NWRN UT...
WEAK VORT MAX DROPPING SEWD INTO THIS AREA ALONG WITH AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED
PULSE SEVERE.  WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL PRECLUDE ORGANIZED
STORMS AND THREAT SHOULD END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

..HALES/BANACOS.. 08/20/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.