[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 200050
SWODY1
SPC AC 200047

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

VALID 200100Z - 201200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S CRP 20 SW ALI 30
NE LRD 70 W COT ...CONT... 70 S GBN 20 NNW YUM 40 WNW BLH 50 ESE DAG
35 ESE NID 65 SSW BIH 45 SSW TVL MHS 35 ENE BLI ...CONT... 30 NE CTB
50 ENE GTF 20 E SHR 45 SW DGW 40 ENE DEN 40 S LHX 40 WSW GAG 40 SSW
EMP 20 WNW FLV 30 S OTM 25 NW LAF 25 SW FDY 15 N FKL 35 WNW ALB 20 S
HUL ...CONT... 30 SE ORF 25 SSE DAN 20 ESE SPA 50 NW AHN 10 NE CHA
20 NNE TRI 20 NE JKL 35 NNW HOP 25 ENE MEM 30 SSE MEI PNS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S CTY 15 ENE JAX.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...OH THROUGH MID ATLANTIC AREA...

THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CNTRL NY SWWD THROUGH NW
PA...CNTRL OH AND BEYOND. THE ATMOSPHERE S OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE FROM THE OH VALLEY EWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
AREA WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. STORMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUE FROM CNTRL OH EWD THROUGH SRN
PA...MD AND NRN VA. THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
MAY PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 03Z...MAINLY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AREA.
HOWEVER...GIVEN LACK OF FORCING ON THE LARGER SCALE...STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A WEAKENING TREND AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS
AND STABILIZES.


...MID MS VALLEY THROUGH OH VALLEY...

STALLED BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM CNTRL OH SWWD THROUGH SRN IND...SRN IL
AND SRN MO. S OF THIS BOUNDARY THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG. INCREASING FORCING FOR
ASCENT...INCLUDING DEVELOPMENT OF A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET IS SPREADING
NEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS IN VICINITY OF
THE BOUNDARY FROM MO EWD THROUGH SRN IL AND IND. HOWEVER...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ARE WEAK AND FLOW REGIME IS SUCH THAT STORMS
WILL BECOME ELEVATED AS THEY MOVE NEWD OVER TOP OF STALLED BOUNDARY.
THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY
PERSIST THROUGH 03Z...BUT OVERALL THREAT APPEARS LIMITED BY MODEST
LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY AND WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR.

...TX...

THIS EVENING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM W TX JUST S OF MIDLAND
EWD THROUGH CNTRL TX S OF KILEEN THEN NEWD INTO NE TX. THE MOST
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY IS OVER CNTRL TX WHERE
THE WARM SECTOR S OF THE BOUNDARY REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH
MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG. SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID-LATE EVENING WITH STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS IT SETTLES SWD THROUGH CNTRL AND S CNTRL TX.
HOWEVER...WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR...MODEST LAPSE RATES AND STABILIZING
BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST OVERALL THREAT WILL REMAIN VERY MARGINAL.


...WRN U.S...

OROGRAPHIC FORCING IN CONJUNCTION WITH AREAS OF ENHANCED LARGE SCALE
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH VORTICITY MAXIMA EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER
SCALE NWLY FLOW REGIME ARE SUPPORTING NUMEROUS STORMS FROM THE NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION SWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THREAT FOR
ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH MID EVENING.

..DIAL.. 08/20/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.