[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 191951
SWODY1
SPC AC 191949

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0249 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

VALID 192000Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW
MGW 45 W UNI 40 W LUK 30 E IND 20 ENE MIE 35 S FDY 30 S YNG 25 ENE
PSB 35 NNW CXY 10 WNW CXY 20 SSE HGR 20 SW MGW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW CTB GTF 3HT BIL
AIA 35 NNW IML 35 W EHA EHA GCK RSL CNK FNB 25 S DTW ...CONT... 35 W
CTY AYS 50 WNW SAV AGS AHN ATL 25 NE GAD 45 NE HSV 40 NW CSV 40 S
LEX LEX 35 NE SDF OWB PAH JBR GWO 20 E LUL 20 SE PNS ...CONT... MFE
ALI COT 70 W COT ...CONT... 70 S GBN 20 NNW YUM 40 W BLH 60 E DAG 30
NNE DAG 35 ESE NID 60 S BIH 45 SSW TVL MHS 40 NE BLI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
PARTS OF THE MIDDLE/UPPER OH VALLEY INTO CNTRL PA...

...OH VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND...
STRONG DIABATIC HEATING IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S HAVE RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS /MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG/ THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
SRN PORTIONS IND/OH INTO PA -- ALONG AND S OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE. THOUGH REGIONAL VWPS INDICATE
LARGELY WSWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS...PRESENCE OF 40-50KT
MID-LEVEL FLOW ALONG/N OF BAROCLINIC ZONE IS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT
SPEED SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. WHILE BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT...EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED
TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

FARTHER NE...CONVECTIVE LINE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ACROSS
CNTRL NY WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS EXTENDING NEWD ALONG FRONT INTO
N-CNTRL VT. HERE...WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS HAS SLOWED THE
DESTABILIZATION PROCESS WITH GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY PRESENT FROM
THE HUDSON VALLEY EWD INTO WRN/CNTRL NEW ENGLAND. SOME OF THE MORE
INTENSE STORMS/LINE SEGMENTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MAINLY ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT THE WEAK INSTABILITY WILL
TEND TO LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

FOR MORE ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD 2047.

...CNTRL/ERN TX INTO AR/LA...
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID-LEVEL VORTICITY
MAXIMUM SLOWLY TRANSLATING ENEWD ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY. TSTMS
HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS
WITHIN TROPICAL/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
N-CNTRL/ERN TX. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO OCCURRING ALONG
TRAILING PORTION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO W-CNTRL TX WHERE STRONG
DIABATIC HEATING AND ENHANCED CONVERGENCE HAVE LOCALLY OVERCOME CAP.
CURRENT FT. WORTH/WACO VWPS INDICATE A ZONE OF STRONGER VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IN SERN QUADRANT OF MID-LEVEL SYSTEM ALONG/E OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR WHERE 0-6KM SHEAR HAS INCREASED TO AROUND 35KTS WITH 1KM
SRH VALUES OF 100-150 M2/S2. THUS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

FARTHER W ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
WEAKER...HOWEVER STEEPER LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT A
FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.

FOR MORE ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD/S 2046 AND
2048.

...PARTS OF PACIFIC NW/NRN ROCKIES...
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND RESULTANT STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE RESULTING IN POCKETS OF WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS REGION WHERE MLCAPES HAVE INCREASED TO 500-1000
J/KG. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TSTMS GRADUALLY INCREASING
ALONG/E OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER NERN ORE/SERN WA AND NWRN
MT...AHEAD OF VORTICITY MAXIMA OVER NWRN ORE AND FAR NWRN MT. 
RELATIVELY WEAK WIND SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD LIMIT STORM
ORGANIZATION...HOWEVER THE STRONGER ACTIVITY WILL POSE AN ISOLATED
HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

..MEAD.. 08/19/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.