[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 200545
SWODY1
SPC AC 200543

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 AM CDT FRI AUG 20 2004

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW
P07 10 NE FST 35 NW INK 40 NNW HOB 35 W LBB 10 S ACT 55 SSE AUS 45
WNW NIR 50 SE DRT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW
CXY 25 ESE BMG 30 WSW IND 20 E LAF 40 N CLE 20 WNW SYR 15 NW AVP 25
WSW CXY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW PSX 35 NW LRD
...CONT... 40 WSW MRF 30 N MRF 45 ESE GDP 15 N GDP 45 ENE ELP 10 ENE
DMN 30 S SAD 50 SSE IGM 45 NW NID 30 N FAT 40 WNW TVL 30 SSW LMT 35
NNE MFR 35 W RDM 55 WSW PDT 25 E EPH 45 NNW 4OM ...CONT... 80 ENE
HVR 75 NNE BIL 25 WNW GCC 25 NNW CDR 35 E AIA IML 55 S GLD 30 S EHA
40 W CSM 15 SW OKC 25 SW BVO 30 ENE CNU 45 S IRK PIA 35 SSE CGX 15
SE DTW ...CONT... 55 W 3B1 10 ESE BHB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OH VALLEY THROUGH THE
NERN U.S....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SWRN THROUGH S CNTRL TX...

...OH VALLEY THROUGH NERN STATES...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL LIFT NEWD THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY FRIDAY AND INTO THE NERN U.S. FRIDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANIED
BY A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL TRACK NEWD ALONG STALLED FRONT. THE FRONT
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NY SWWD THROUGH SRN OH...SRN IND AND INTO SRN
IL AND MO. THIS BOUNDARY MAY HAVE A TENDENCY TO LIFT NWD AS A STRONG
50 KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND SHIFTS NEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY.

PRIMARY CONCERN THIS FORECAST IS HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR
OVER THE OH VALLEY IN VICINITY OF AND S OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY. THE
CURRENT IR IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS LIFTING NEWD THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEYS.
HOWEVER...RECENT TRENDS SHOW THE CONVECTION WEAKENING WITH IR TOPS
WARMING AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO A LESS UNSTABLE REGIME. THIS
SUGGESTS THAT ALTHOUGH SOME MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST ALONG AND S OF THE BOUNDARY...THERE IS A REASONABLE CHANCE
THAT ENOUGH BREAKS WILL DEVELOP TO ALLOW SOME SURFACE HEATING IN THE
WARM SECTOR. STILL...INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED BY POOR MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG AT BEST EXPECTED.

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY ALONG E-W FRONT IN VICINITY OF AND
JUST E OF SURFACE LOW AND SWD ALONG TRAILING SURFACE BOUNDARY WHERE
STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS WILL SUPPORT 0-6 KM SHEAR FROM 40-45 KT
AND 0-1 KM HELICITY FROM 200 TO 250 M2/S2. BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AND
SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH PRIMARY THREATS BEING DAMAGING WIND
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE STRONGER FORCING AND WIND FIELDS WILL
SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE NERN
U.S. DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

...SWRN THROUGH S CNTRL TX...

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SERN TX WWD THROUGH SWRN
TX. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL OK SWWD THROUGH W TX
CONTINUES TO SETTLE SWD...AND WRN PORTIONS OF THIS BOUNDARY MAY
EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH PRE-EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SW TX.
THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES MAY BE REINFORCED BY ONGOING
CONVECTION SPREADING EWD THROUGH W AND CNTRL TX. ELY UPSLOPE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN POST FRONTAL REGIME OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.
THE ATMOSPHERE S OF THE BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE RICH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG.

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP/INTENSIFY IN VICINITY OF THE
BOUNDARY ACROSS SW THROUGH CNTRL AND S CNTRL TX. OTHER STORMS MAY
DEVELOP IN UPSLOPE REGIME OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN NM. THOUGH
LOW LEVEL FLOW IS NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...
SUFFICIENT DIRECTIONAL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH WILL EXIST TO
SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH MID EVENING.

..DIAL.. 08/20/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.