[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 190547
SWODY1
SPC AC 190544

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 AM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N
SAT 45 ENE DRT 55 ENE P07 15 SE INK 35 NNE HOB 25 WSW PVW 25 S CDS
40 NE ABI 25 WNW TPL 35 N SAT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S
ACY 45 S MRB 15 SSE UNI 30 SSE CMH 20 SSE MFD 10 SE BFD 20 ENE UCA
10 ESE MPV 30 NNW AUG 20 ENE BHB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW CTY 35 W AYS
65 ESE MCN 35 SSE AHN 20 NNE ATL 20 WSW RMG 50 NE HSV 50 SE BNA 50 N
CSV 45 SSW LEX 25 SE SDF 35 SW EVV 40 WNW CGI 30 NNW ARG 20 S GWO 10
WNW LUL 30 SW PNS ...CONT... MFE 35 SSW ALI 35 SSE COT 65 WSW COT
...CONT... 75 SSW GBN 40 SE BLH 40 E NID 45 SSW TVL 35 W SVE 75 NE
MFR 25 SSE DLS 35 ENE BLI ...CONT... 55 ENE CTB 25 N SHR 50 NE DGW
30 NW AIA 35 NE SNY 20 WSW IML 15 SSE GLD 50 NNW GCK 55 SSW HLC 40
NNE RSL 25 ESE BIE 20 SE OTM 10 W SBN 25 E DTW.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE NE U.S....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR W TX...

...OH VALLEY AND NERN STATES...

NRN PORTION OF COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM LAKE HURON SWWD INTO
THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO THE NERN U.S. THURSDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SRN ONTARIO CONTINUES EWD
INTO QUEBEC. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS BOUNDARY...SSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL MAINTAIN SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INTO SRN NEW
ENGLAND WITH LOW TO MID 60S FARTHER NORTH. WHERE SURFACE HEATING
OCCURS...THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE
FROM PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY EWD INTO SRN PARTS OF THE NERN U.S. AND
SRN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...OVERALL DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION WILL BE
TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MLCAPE FROM 1500
TO 2000 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SRN PARTS OF THE RISK AREA WITH
AOB 1500 J/KG EXPECTED FARTHER N. 

STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY FRIDAY OVER ERN PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITHIN ZONE OF LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REINTENSIFY DURING THE DAY AS THE
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. SWLY 30-50 KT FLOW BETWEEN 1 AND 6 KM ON
SRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH AND 0-6 KM SHEAR FROM 30-40 KT WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. LINES OF STORMS WITH EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND THE MAIN THREAT THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOMEWHAT LESSER THREAT
FOR DAMAGING WIND WILL EXIST FARTHER SW OVER THE OH VALLEY ALONG
TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT WHERE WEAKENING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
MORE PARALLEL ORIENTATION OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW RELATIVE TO THE
BOUNDARY WILL EXIST.

...W TX...

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER W TX WILL CONTINUE NEWD INTO NRN TX
AND OK DURING THE DAY ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND AREAS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE ACROSS W
TX...NWLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...AND THE ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD DESTABILIZE AS SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES WITH MODERATELY
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG POSSIBLE BY MID
AFTERNOON. ELY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
CNTRL AND NRN NM AS SURFACE BOUNDARY SETTLES SWD. 25 TO 30 KT WNWLY
FLOW ALOFT ABOVE SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT STORMS THAT
FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO DEVELOP SEWD INTO THE INSTABILITY
AXIS THROUGH W TX. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS.
HOWEVER...EVOLUTION INTO AN MCS MAY OCCUR DURING THE EVENING.
PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE FROM LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

..DIAL.. 08/19/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.