[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 190107
SWODY1
SPC AC 190105

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0805 PM CDT WED AUG 18 2004

VALID 190100Z - 191200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW
ERI 10 SSE HLG 30 SSW HTS 45 N BWG 15 NNE BLV 20 ENE TOP 20 S FNB 20
NNE FNB 35 ENE OTM 45 SE MKE 20 NNE MBS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE CAR 35 NNW PWM
30 NW BOS 15 NNW BID ...CONT... 40 WNW CTY 55 ESE MCN 25 S TYS 20
ESE BWG 20 S BLV 20 SSW SZL 35 WSW CNU 35 NE OKC 30 NNE DAL 25 NNW
LFK 30 SSE LCH ...CONT... 20 SSE YUM 35 WSW BLH 35 N TRM 15 NNE DAG
15 NNE NID 45 S BIH 55 NE MER 15 SSW RNO 80 SE 4LW 45 SSE BNO 55 NNE
BNO 45 ESE YKM 30 NNE SEA 20 NE BLI ...CONT... 30 NNE CTB 10 ENE HLN
35 NW RIW 50 NNW LAR 35 ESE SNY 10 S GRI 20 N CID 25 NW TVC 20 N
ANJ.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MS
VALLEY THROUGH THE OH VALLEY...

...MID MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...

EARLY THIS EVENING A SEWD MOVING PRE-FRONTAL COLD TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM NEAR LAKE MI SWWD THROUGH EXTREME SERN IA THEN WSWWD THROUGH
NWRN MO AND INTO NRN KS. WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN IND NWWD
THROUGH CNTRL IL INTO SERN IA WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE PRE-FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE WARM SECTOR S OF THESE BOUNDARIES REMAINS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. FARTHER N INTO THE
GREAT LAKES...COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 60S IS RESULTING IN MORE MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE
BELOW 1000 J/KG.

BAND OF STRONGER 40-50 KT MID LEVEL FLOW ON SRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER
TROUGH IS RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. STORMS HAVE CONSOLIDATED INTO
LINES ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM EXTREME SERN IA SWWD INTO
NRN MO. PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL ASSOCIATED WITH EMBEDDED BOWS AND SUPERCELLS.
MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG THE WARM FRONT
FROM PORTIONS OF W CNTRL IL SEWD INTO S CNTRL IND. ISOLATED
HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AS WELL AS AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY NEXT FEW HOURS. MOST PERSISTENT
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE OUT OF MCS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO W
CNTRL IL. DEVELOPING SWLY LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD SUPPORT THESE STORMS
CONTINUING EWD OVERNIGHT AS AN MCS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
BECOMING THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...SOME DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.

DESPITE STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...LIMITED
INSTABILITY HAS RESULTED IN OVERALL WEAKENING OF STORMS ACROSS LOWER
MI. STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL WSWLY WIND PROFILES WITH 40-50 KT BETWEEN 1
AND 3 KM SUGGEST ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER STORMS. HOWEVER...OVERALL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIMITED AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING COMMENCES.

...CNTRL AND SRN AZ...

STORMS THAT INITIATED OVER THE RIM HAVE DEVELOPED ENOUGH OF A COLD
POOL TO SUPPORT SWD PROPAGATION TOWARD THE DESERT VALLEYS DESPITE A
SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE MID LEVEL WIND PROFILE. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL SUPPORT THREAT OF MAINLY
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AS ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS SWD.

..DIAL.. 08/19/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.