[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 191253
SWODY1
SPC AC 191251

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 AM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

VALID 191300Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S
ACY 45 S MRB 15 SSE UNI 30 SSE CMH 20 SSE MFD 10 SE BFD 20 ENE UCA
10 ESE MPV 30 NNW AUG 20 ENE BHB.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE
DRT 50 NE P07 10 E INK 35 NNE HOB 30 WSW PVW 40 SSW CDS 25 NW SEP 30
W TPL 20 NNW SAT 45 NE DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE CTB 25 N SHR
50 NE DGW 30 NW AIA 35 NE SNY 20 WNW IML 45 SSW GLD 50 ESE LAA 30 NW
LBL 20 SE GCK 40 S HLC 40 NNE RSL 25 ESE BIE 20 SE OTM 10 W SBN 25 E
DTW ...CONT... 15 WNW CTY 35 W AYS 65 ESE MCN 35 SSE AHN 20 NNE ATL
20 WSW RMG 50 NE HSV 50 SE BNA 50 N CSV 45 SSW LEX 15 NW SDF 25 NW
EVV 15 N CGI 25 NE JBR 20 S GWO 10 WNW LUL 30 SW PNS ...CONT... MFE
35 SSW ALI 35 SSE COT 65 WSW COT ...CONT... 25 E IPL 55 E DAG 40 E
NID 45 SSW TVL 35 W SVE 75 NE MFR 25 SSE DLS 35 ENE BLI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS WEST TEXAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...

...NORTHEAST US...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS NRN OH AND SRN
PA. THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS PA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
SEWD ACROSS WRN NY AND NW PA BY AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE A
FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION BY AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES.
THE BEST INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ACROSS NRN WV AND PA AS MID-LEVEL
DRYING RESULTS IN PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THIS AREA. STORMS COULD
ALSO INITIATE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND SPREAD EWD INTO THE
COASTAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.

AT UPPER-LEVELS...A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL CAUSE
MID-LEVEL FLOW TO INCREASE ACROSS THE ERN US TODAY. THIS WILL
ENHANCE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SERN PA BY 00Z SHOW
MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR AT 35 TO 40 KT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AS A CONVECTIVE LINE
ORGANIZES AND MOVES EWD ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WIND
DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE FASTER MOVING LINE SEGMENTS
ESPECIALLY AS THE LINE MATURES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS SE NY AND ERN PA.

...WEST AND CNTRL TX...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SE NM AND W TX
EXTENDING NEWD INTO WRN OK. A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CURRENTLY
EXISTS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NCNTRL TX AND THIS MCS WILL
CONTINUE NEWD AWAY FROM THE SLIGHT RISK AREA TODAY. THE AIRMASS
ACROSS W TX REMAINS LARGELY UNTOUCHED AND SFC HEATING SHOULD RESULT
IN MODERATE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD
OCCUR IN THE MTNS OF ERN NM WITH THE STORMS SPREADING EWD INTO W TX
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER ISOLATED STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION ACROSS
WCNTRL TX.

THE 09Z RUC MODEL SHOWS A MID-LEVEL JET MAX OVER FAR SE NM AND THIS
FEATURE WILL LIKELY MOVE EWD INTO W TX AS SHOWN BY THE ETA. AS A
RESULT...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE OVER W TX BY 00Z WITH 0-6 KM
SHEAR REACHING 30 TO 35 KT. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS
ESPECIALLY IF MLCAPE EXCEEDS 2000 J/KG ACROSS W TX AS SUGGESTED BY
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 7.0 C/KM MAY
RESULT IN LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. ALSO...SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER 60S F WITH VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD
RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
SHOULD GRADUALLY CONGEAL...FORMING AN MCS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
THE MCS SHOULD MOVE ESEWD ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS REACHING WCNTRL
TX BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

...CNTRL PLAINS AND OZARKS...
SCATTERED STORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT ACROSS SE KS AND SW MO. SFC HEATING TODAY AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES REACHING 1000 TO 2000 J/KG BY
AFTERNOON. AS STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...A MARGINAL SEVERE
POTENTIAL MAY EXIST DUE TO THE INSTABILITY AND STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE 850 MB JET. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD BE MARGINAL AND BRIEF CONSIDERING FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ACROSS SE KS DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 10 TO 20 KT.

..BROYLES/GUYER.. 08/19/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.