[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 170508
SWODY1
SPC AC 170506

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1206 AM CDT TUE AUG 17 2004

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE
DGW CDR VTN 45 E ANW 15 SE BUB 20 SE BBW 25 SE LBF IML 25 NNE AKO 50
ENE FCL CYS 40 ESE DGW.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW
BLV JEF 45 NNE SZL 15 ESE P35 OTM DBQ 25 SW MSN 35 E MSN MKE BEH SBN
LAF MVN 30 SSW BLV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GBN 30 SE GBN
50 NW TUS 40 ESE PHX 25 ENE PHX 45 WSW PRC 30 S IGM 40 S LAS 15 SW
LAS 10 SE DRA 50 NNE DRA 30 NNW TPH 20 ENE NFL 40 WNW SVE 20 SSW LMT
20 SSW RDM 20 ESE PDX 10 E UIL 30 NNW UIL ...CONT... 75 ENE HVR 35
SE HVR 30 NNE LWT 50 NW SHR 10 NE GCC 35 NW PHP 45 ENE PIR 25 ENE
ATY 25 NNW FAR 55 WSW DVL 70 NE ISN ...CONT... 35 NE CLE 40 SSW CMH
50 SSE SDF 30 E CKV 45 ENE DYR 40 SSW JBR 55 E FSM 10 SSE FYV JLN 25
E ICT 15 ENE HUT SLN MHK 35 WSW FNB 25 SW BIE 35 WSW MCK 35 NE PUB
35 SSE PUB 25 ENE RTN 10 WSW LVS 65 SSE LVS 15 N CVS 45 ENE HOB 60
SSE MAF 65 SSW SJT 30 S JCT 10 WNW HDO 25 NNW COT 65 W COT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE CEW 30 E DHN
20 ESE LGC 45 E HSV 15 NW CSV 20 NNW 5I3 45 ENE CRW 30 WNW AOO 45
ESE BFD 30 SSE ELM 20 WNW ABE 20 WSW ILG 15 SSW NHK 20 NNE ECG 45
WNW HSE 30 S EWN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID MS
VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WRN/CENTRAL NEB...

...SYNOPSIS...
WEAK FRONT/TROUGH FROM MN INTO NEB WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD...AND IS
FORECAST BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO EXTEND FROM ERN WI SWWD TO
NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER...AND THEN STRETCH WWD ACROSS NEB BY LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AREA...RESULTING IN MODERATE WNWLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NRN PORTIONS OF THE MID MS VALLEY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER ERN
NV THIS EVENING SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY NEWD INTO NRN UT.

...MID MS RIVER VALLEY...
CONVECTION CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF IA/NWRN IL IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD SEWD ACROSS IL AND PERHAPS NERN MO BY DAYBREAK.
THESE STORMS SHOULD BE MOSTLY ELEVATED AND WITH MARGINAL
INSTABILITY...THE STORMS SHOULD BE NON-SEVERE.

HOWEVER...DIURNAL HEATING OF A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON
FROM MO NEWD INTO IL AND SERN IA. ALTHOUGH THE DYNAMICAL FORCING
WILL BE WEAK...STRONG HEATING NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ...WITHIN A
WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE MODERATELY STRONG FLOW ALOFT AND
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. WEAK LOW
LEVEL SHEAR AND A WARM BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS THAT HAIL AND A FEW
SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW FAR
SWWD STORMS WILL DEVELOP INTO MO WHERE AIR MASS WILL BE MORE
STRONGLY CAPPED. HOWEVER...ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...THEY LIKELY WILL
MOVE MORE SWD THAN EWD...GIVEN THAT THE STRONGEST
INSTABILITY/HEATING SHOULD FEED THE STORMS FROM THE WEST.  STORMS
WILL BE PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND SHOULD WEAKEN BY 03Z TO 04Z.

...WRN/CENTRAL NEB...
SEVERE CONVECTION IN THIS AREA IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...ALTHOUGH
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION BY EVENING. ELY
UPSLOPE FLOW NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL ADVECT A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR HIGH
BASED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VEERING WIND
PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION OF STORMS MOVING INTO
NEB BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER...WHICH WOULD BE SUGGESTIVE OF DAMAGING WINDS...IF
STRONG UPDRAFTS CAN BE MAINTAINED. MUCAPES UP TO 1000 J/KG MAY ALSO
SUPPORT A MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THREAT. 

...GREAT BASIN AREA...
PRESENCE OF UPPER LOW AND MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WIND
PROFILES MAY NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY
SUPPORT A COUPLE OF HAIL REPORTS. WHERE STRONG HEATING
OCCURS...RESULTING IN LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS...A COUPLE
OF STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

..IMY.. 08/17/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.