[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 170055
SWODY1
SPC AC 170053

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 PM CDT MON AUG 16 2004

VALID 170100Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE
OLU 25 SSE FSD 15 S OTG 25 NNW MCW 55 S LSE 20 SW DBQ 35 WNW BRL 25
NNE LWD 35 SE OMA 20 WSW OMA 15 NE OLU.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE YUM 20 SSW DAG
55 W DRA 25 N RNO 50 S 4LW 55 NE MFR 10 ESE PDX 20 NE BLI ...CONT...
25 NNW CTB 45 ESE LWT 45 WSW 4BQ 60 SSE SHR 30 WSW RWL AKO GRI YKN
BKX AXN 30 NNE BRD 25 ENE ELO ...CONT... 55 WNW ANJ BEH 15 WSW MTO
STL 25 N OKC 30 NE LTS PVW 15 S P07.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW ACY 10 NE ABE
25 NNW GFL MPV 30 SW MWN LCI 15 S EWB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W PFN DHN 40 S MCN
70 ESE MCN 25 ESE SAV.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN IOWA...

...MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NRN IA ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH EXTENDED FROM SWRN MN SWWD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
NEB. VEERING WIND PROFILES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT
STORMS WITH SEVERE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE
UNTIL 0130Z...BUT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS...STORM OUTFLOWS
SHOULD CONSOLIDATE INTO A SWD MOVING LINE WITH A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
WINDS EVENTS. REFERENCE WW 755.

...SERN NEB AND KS...
A FEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED...BUT STRONG UPDRAFTS HAVE NOT BEEN
MAINTAINED...MAINLY DUE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. A FEW STORMS
MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES ALONG
SURFACE TROUGH...THAT EXTENDED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL NEB INTO NWRN
KS...OR ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LOCATED IN CENTRAL KS.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING...EXPECT STORMS TO BE
TOO ISOLATED FOR A SLIGHT RISK.

...SRN NV/AZ...
WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED ABOUT 50 E TPH AT 00Z AND MOVING
SLOWLY NEWD. CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION DEVELOPED AROUND THIS SYSTEM
...WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS ON THE SERN SIDE OF THE LOW FROM NORTH
OF LAS SEWD TO N OF PHX. CLOUDS AND STORM OUTFLOWS HAVE STABILIZED
THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS MOST OF SRN NV AND NRN AZ. HOWEVER...A
BAND OF STORMS FROM WEST OF PRC TO SAD IS MOVING SWD INTO A HOT AND
RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
STRONG WINDS AND PERHAPS EVEN A SEVERE WIND GUST OR TWO. THIS SHOULD
BE SHORT LIVED AS A NWD MOVING BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION
SHOULD INTERSECT AND WEAKEN STORMS SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

...WRN NEW ENGLAND...
A LINE OF CONVECTION...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID LEVEL COLD POOL AND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WAS WEAKENING AS IT MOVED EWD INTO A MORE STABLE
AIR MASS. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS.

..IMY.. 08/17/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.