[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 171243
SWODY1
SPC AC 171241

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 AM CDT TUE AUG 17 2004

VALID 171300Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW
IML 45 NNW AKO 25 NNE CYS 40 ESE DGW 15 N CDR 15 NNW VTN 40 E ANW 20
SE BUB 35 S BBW 15 SW IML.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E
JEF 40 NW COU 25 WSW IRK 20 SW OTM 25 SW MSN 30 N MKE 45 N GRR 10
ENE LAN 15 SSE JXN 20 NNE FWA 30 NNE HUF 20 ENE SLO 25 SSW BLV 15 E
JEF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW TUS 40 NW PHX
20 E IGM 15 NNW DRA 30 S NFL 40 NW 4LW 10 ESE PDX 35 NW UIL
...CONT... 45 NE HVR 35 N LWT 40 E 3HT 25 NE SHR 20 NNE RAP 50 ENE
PIR 40 NE ATY 35 W AXN 25 E FAR 40 SW GFK 25 N P24 45 ENE ISN 60 NNE
ISN ...CONT... 35 NE CLE 35 ESE LUK 25 SE CKV 30 SW DYR 15 SE HRO 40
E ICT 50 NNE DDC 30 E LAA 40 NNW CAO 45 WSW DHT 50 SW CDS 10 SSE ABI
30 NNW HDO 65 W COT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE CEW 25 SSE ANB
20 WNW TYS 30 NE CRW 30 SSW DUJ 35 ESE BFD 25 NE IPT 10 S AVP 30 SSW
ABE 10 NE ORF 35 S EWN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID TO
UPPER MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

...MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS CNTRL IA EXTENDING
NEWD TO NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD AS A SFC LOW
NEAR DES MOINES MOVES SLOWLY EWD INTO WRN IL BY LATE AFTERNOON.
A POCKET OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER MO WILL ADVECT NWD INTO IL AND
SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD REACH NEAR 70 F...YIELDING MODERATE INSTABILITY
BY MID-AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL
MOVE SEWD INTO ERN IA AND WRN IL BY LATE AFTERNOON... AIDING
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30 KT WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS. 500 MB TEMPS OF -11 TO -12 C AND MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL WITH THE
STRONGER UPDRAFTS. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE FASTER MOVING LINE SEGMENTS. A BRIEF TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO
OCCUR WITH CELLS THAT INTERACT WITH PRE-EXISTING BOUNDARIES
CONSIDERING LCL HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 800 METERS ALONG THE
FRONTAL ZONE. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SHIFT EWD DURING THE EARLY
EVENING AND MAY AFFECT NRN IND AND SWRN LOWER MI. BUT THE STORMS
SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY MID-EVENING AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS
ACROSS THE REGION.

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
SUNNY SKIES AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S F SHOULD YIELD MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WRN NEB. IN
ADDITION...A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP IN FAR NWRN NEB WHICH WILL FOCUS
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAKING STORM INITIATION LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.
AT UPPER-LEVELS...A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION AS IT
DEVELOPS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND SPREADS SEWD ACROSS WRN NEB.
FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW ABOUT 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
LARGE SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS SUGGEST A POSSIBILITY FOR HAIL AND
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. THE CONVECTION WILL
BE SUSTAINED BY THE LOW-LEVEL JET DURING THE EVENING HOURS BUT
SHOULD WEAKEN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS
THE REGION.

..BROYLES.. 08/17/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.