[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 162002
SWODY1
SPC AC 161959

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT MON AUG 16 2004

VALID 162000Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE
YKN 30 N YKN 35 E BKX 15 SE RWF 40 WSW RST 20 E ALO 35 N OTM 25 S
DSM 20 ESE OMA 25 WNW OMA 30 SSE YKN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW
EED 60 SSW LAS 20 W DRA 65 WNW P38 15 ENE P38 55 SE SGU 50 NW PRC 10
WSW EED.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E
POU 15 N EWR 35 ESE AVP 15 NNE AVP 35 ENE BGM 35 E UCA 15 NE ALB 20
E POU.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 NW GGW 30 NE MLS
30 NW 4BQ 35 SSW SHR 35 NNE RWL 35 NNW AKO 25 E LBF 45 ENE BUB 55
WSW YKN 30 WSW MHE 35 NNE HON 30 SSE JMS 45 ESE RRT ...CONT... 45
ESE ANJ 50 W MBS 35 S DEC 20 SE FSM 15 NNW PRX 45 N ABI 25 SE MAF 15
S P07 ...CONT... 15 SSE YUM 35 WSW PMD 60 NNW NID 65 SSE TVL 55 SSW
SVE 25 SSE MFR 55 SSE EUG 15 NNW BLI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE ORF 30 E RIC 20
E LYH 15 WNW ROA 35 NNW SSU 30 W MGW 30 SW JHW 50 NNW JHW ...CONT...
60 NNW 3B1 30 ESE AUG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E PNS 25 ENE GAD
50 ENE RMG 30 N AHN 40 ESE AGS 35 ENE SAV.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SWRN MN AND WRN
IA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN NV/NWRN AZ
AND EXTREME SWRN UT...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A SMALL PART OF THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY OF NY...NRN NJ AND NERN PA...

...MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY...
STRONG INSTABILITY WAS DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF MORNING STORMS
ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NEB/WRN IA AND SWRN MN. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INVOF SFC LOW AND FRONT ACROSS SWRN MN OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THEN DRIFT S/SEWD INTO IA. ACTIVITY WILL BE
FURTHER SUSTAINED BY WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE DAKOTAS. WEAK SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TOPPED BY ABOUT
30KT NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR/INSTABILITY SHOULD
SUPPORT A FEW LARGE HAIL REPORTS...AND PERHAPS A COUPLE HIGH WIND
EVENTS THROUGH THE EVENING.

...SRN KS...
SOMEWHAT WEAKER LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR UPWARD MOTION ACROSS THIS
REGION. HOWEVER...A NUMBER OF SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS
SRN KS BY LATE AFTERNOON. IF THIS ACTIVITY CAN DEVELOP...PRESENCE OF
STRONG INSTABILITY AND WEAK TO MARGINAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SHOULD
RESULT IN A FEW STRONG TO ISOLD SEVERE STORMS. GIVEN STRONG DIURNAL
FORCING...EXPECT STORMS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AFTER
DARK.

...SRN NV/NWRN AZ...
BELT OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW WITHIN BASE OF WELL DEFINED UPPER
VORTEX WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AND SRN NV THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. A NUMBER OF STRONG TSTMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED AND
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY GIVEN FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT
AHEAD OF/SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER LOW. WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 2000
J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25-30KT...SEVERAL STORM CLUSTERS WITH
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
PERHAPS A FEW DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS.

...SERN AZ/SWRN NM...
SITUATION ACROSS THE DESERTS AND MOUNTAINS OF SERN AZ AND SWRN NM
THIS AFTERNOON IS SIMILAR TO FARTHER NW. WEAKER IMPULSE AND MID
LEVEL FLOW...BUT STRONG INSTABILITY AND WEAK CAP...WAS RESULTING IN
NUMEROUS STORMS OF MULTICELL/PULSE NATURE. GIVEN SOMEWHAT WEAKER
SHEAR AND SLIGHTLY WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS...EXPECT ONLY ISOLD SEVERE
WEATHER...DESPITE WIDESPREAD STORM COVERAGE.

...SERN NY/NERN PA/NRN NJ...
MID LEVEL COLD POOL AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE IMPULSE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EVENING. STRONGEST SURFACE HEATING HAS
BEEN OCCURRING FROM NERN PA/NRN NJ...ACROSS SERN NY AND MLCAPE OF
500-1000 J/KG WAS FEEDING INTO TSTM ACTIVITY NOW MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE CATSKILLS. THESE STORMS APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING TOWARD AN AREA
OF SLIGHTLY GREATER SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ON THE ORDER OF 35-40KT. GIVEN FAVORABLE ASCENT WITHIN CYCLONIC
SHEAR SIDE OF MID LEVEL JET STREAK CROSSING SERN NY...AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...EXPECT A FEW MORE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

..CARBIN.. 08/16/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.