[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 161635
SWODY1
SPC AC 161633

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1133 AM CDT MON AUG 16 2004

VALID 161630Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE
OLU 10 N SUX 40 E BKX 25 N RWF 20 W MSP 20 SSE RST 35 W CID 10 NNE
LWD FNB 15 SSE LNK 25 NE OLU.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE YUM 35 S DAG
55 N NID 65 SSE TVL 55 SSW SVE 25 SSE MFR 55 SSE EUG 15 NNW BLI
...CONT... 90 NW GGW 30 NE MLS 30 NW 4BQ 35 SSW SHR 35 NNE RWL 35
NNW AKO 25 E LBF 45 ENE BUB 30 WSW YKN 40 SE 9V9 35 NNE 9V9 20 E ABR
45 ESE RRT ...CONT... 45 ESE ANJ 50 W MBS 35 S DEC 20 SE FSM 15 NNW
PRX 45 N ABI 25 SE MAF 15 S P07.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE ORF 30 E RIC 20
E LYH 15 WNW ROA 35 NNW SSU 30 W MGW 30 SW JHW 50 NNW JHW ...CONT...
60 NNW 3B1 30 ESE AUG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E PNS 25 ENE GAD
50 ENE RMG 30 N AHN 40 ESE AGS 35 ENE SAV.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN NEB TO SRN MN....

...SRN MN TO KS AREA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSES CONFIRM THAT A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING SEWD OVER ERN MN/CENTRAL
IA...WITH A SECONDARY LOBE OVER CENTRAL KS.  THESE MID LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS AND ASSOCIATED BANDS OF ASCENT ARE MOVING SE OF THE
PRIMARY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXES...WITH A WEAKER
UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVING SEWD OVER THE DAKOTAS/NEB.  EXPECT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THE RESIDUAL
SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM SW MN TO ERN NEB...WHERE THE COMBINATION OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SPEED SHEAR WITH 30-50 KT NWLY FLOW IN THE
500-300 MB LAYER SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS.  WIND PROFILES WILL BE
WEAKER TO THE SW ACROSS KS...WHERE MARGINAL SUPERCELL TYPE STORMS
MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FROM SW INTO CENTRAL KS.

...SRN NV TO SRN AZ AREA...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TWO DISTINCT MID LEVEL VORTICITY CENTERS
WITHIN A BROAD NW-SE SHEAR AXIS...ONE OVER CA/NV BORDER AND THE
OTHER OVER SE AZ.  MID LEVEL NWLY FLOW IS ENHANCED ON THE W SIDE OF
EACH VORTICITY CENTER /20-30 KT/...WHILE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LAPSE RATES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  MODIFIED
SOUNDINGS /12Z DRA AND 14Z TUS/ BOTH SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR MLCAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS.  IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST
STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND A FEW STRONG
GUSTS...AND SOME PORTION OF EITHER THE SRN NV OR S CENTRAL/SE AZ
AREA MAY STILL NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON UPDATE.

...PA/NY AREA...
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -16 C
WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL PA AND WRN/CENTRAL NY THIS AFTERNOON.  THOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL OVER THIS AREA...THE COOL MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY SUPPORT A THREAT OF SMALL HAIL WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

..THOMPSON/CROSBIE.. 08/16/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.