[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 161248
SWODY1
SPC AC 161245

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 AM CDT MON AUG 16 2004

VALID 161300Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W
LIC 15 SE AKO 30 SSE LBF 25 ENE GRI 30 SW SUX 35 E BKX 15 N RWF 25
SSW MSP 15 N ALO 40 WSW OTM 20 ENE TOP 35 SSW RSL 35 NNW LAA 10 W
LIC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW WAL 35 SSW NHK
30 SW MRB 20 E ERI 50 NNW JHW ...CONT... 55 N BML 15 SSE PSM
...CONT... 15 WNW AQQ 15 NE DHN 20 ENE TOI 15 NNW MGM 10 SSE TCL 30
N TCL 20 WSW HSV 35 SW CHA 45 E RMG 35 WNW AGS 35 ENE SAV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GBN 50 WSW GBN
30 ESE BLH 45 SW EED 35 ENE DAG 15 NNE NID 50 E FAT 60 S TVL 20 ESE
TVL 35 SE SVE 25 ESE MHS MFR 15 ESE SLE 45 SSE OLM 20 N SEA 15 NE
BLI ...CONT... 40 NNE HVR 25 WNW HVR 50 SW HVR 35 NNW 3HT 45 SW BIL
20 SE RIW 30 WNW RWL LAR 15 SW SNY 15 W LBF 15 NNW BUB 15 SE 9V9 15
S JMS 15 SSE GFK RRT ...CONT... 80 NNW CMX 80 WNW CMX 45 N IWD 40 W
CMX MQT 55 E ESC 20 NW HTL 45 NNE GRR 10 SW MVN 55 SE HRO 15 N TXK
15 N DUA 55 N ABI 25 SE MAF 15 S P07.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...MID MS VALLEY TO CENTRAL PLAINS...

VEERED LOW LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION APPEAR PARTLY
RESPONSIBLE FOR ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS SRN MN INTO NRN IA.  THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD SEWD AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION.  IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE...SFC FRONT WILL
LAG UPPER SHORTWAVE SOMEWHAT BUT LIKELY PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN
FUTURE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  IT APPEARS
HEATING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ALONG WITH FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE...WILL PROVE SUFFICIENT IN GENERATING LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR.  12Z
SOUNDINGS FROM THIS REGION SUGGEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH VERTICAL MIXING AND SBCAPE VALUES SHOULD EXCEED
2500 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. DEEP LAYER VEERING
AND SPEED SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30-35KT SUGGEST ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
ARE POSSIBLE.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE THREATS.  GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
OCCUR FROM ERN NEB INTO IA WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY EXPECTED
ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS NRN KS INTO NERN CO.

...GREAT BASIN/INTER MOUNTAIN REGION...

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS A MOISTENING UPPER VORT MAX
ALONG THE CA/NV BORDER SOUTH OF RNO.  THIS FEATURE IS WELL DEFINED
AND APPEARS TO BE AIDING LARGE SCALE ASCENT/MOISTENING DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN WHERE SCATTERED OVERNIGHT SHOWERS
HAVE ALL BUT DISSIPATED.  12Z SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS WITH MOST UA
SITES DEPICTING AROUND ONE INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER.  BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING WILL PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.  GIVEN EARLY MORNING CLOUD COVER THERE IS SOME CONCERN
AFTERNOON HEATING MAY NOT ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
DESTABILIZATION.  WILL MONITOR CLOUD TRENDS ACROSS THIS REGION OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK.

..DARROW/JEWELL.. 08/16/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.