[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 160512
SWODY1
SPC AC 160509

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1209 AM CDT MON AUG 16 2004

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W
LIC 15 NNE MCK 25 NE OFK RWF 25 NNW MKT ALO 30 SW OTM 15 SW STJ 30
NE SLN 55 SSW HLC 10 W LIC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N BML 15 SSE PSM
...CONT... 40 SSW WAL 35 SSW NHK 30 SW MRB 20 E ERI 50 NNW JHW
...CONT... 15 WNW AQQ 15 NE DHN 20 ENE TOI 15 NNW MGM 10 SSE TCL 30
N TCL 20 WSW HSV 35 SW CHA 45 E RMG 35 WNW AGS 35 ENE SAV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW CTB 20 WNW GTF
35 SSE GTF 3HT 45 SW BIL 20 SE RIW 30 WNW RWL LAR 15 SW SNY 15 W LBF
15 NNW BUB 15 SE 9V9 15 S JMS 15 SSE GFK RRT ...CONT... 80 NNW CMX
80 WNW CMX 45 N IWD 40 W CMX MQT 55 E ESC 20 NW HTL 45 NNE GRR 10 SW
MVN 55 SE HRO 15 N TXK 15 N DUA 55 N ABI 25 SE MAF 15 S P07
...CONT... 70 SSW GBN 50 WSW GBN 30 ESE BLH 45 SW EED 35 ENE DAG 15
NNE NID 50 E FAT 60 S TVL 20 ESE TVL 35 SE SVE 25 ESE MHS MFR 15 ESE
SLE 45 SSE OLM 20 N SEA 15 NE BLI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF THE MID MO RIVER
VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED IN ERN ND...SHOULD WEAKEN
AND MOVE SEWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT/TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EXTEND
FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MN SWWD INTO NERN NEB...AND THEN STRETCH WSWWD
INTO NERN CO. ANOTHER CONVECTIVE FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT THAT WILL EXTEND FROM ORE SEWD INTO
AZ/NM.

...MID MO RIVER VALLEY...
ONGOING CONVECTION OVER ERN SD/SRN MN IS EXPECTED TO CONGEAL INTO AN
MCS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MN/WI BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN SHIFT EWD INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES...BUT STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE THROUGH AN AREA OF
WEAK INSTABILITY...WITH A LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL.

HOWEVER...STRONG INSOLATION DURING MOST OF THE DAY IS EXPECTED TO
WARM THE MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
FRONT. MLCAPES FROM 2000-3000 J/KG ARE PROGGED AND STRONG VEERING
WIND PROFILES SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS...WITH HAIL AND MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND EVENTS. THE STORMS
MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS...WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING SEWD INTO NERN KS/MO AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET VEERS. THE UPPER FORCING IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK AND MID
LEVEL FLOW AT 20 KT SUGGESTING THE MCS WOULD LIKELY BE MOSTLY
NON-SEVERE.

...S CENTRAL NEB/NWRN KS/ERN CO...
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKER ACROSS THIS REGION THAN ACROSS
THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY...THOUGH LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEPER. STRONG
HEATING NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
HIGH BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN SUFFICIENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AND A
RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM 21-03Z.

...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND SWRN STATES...
THE COMBINATION OF A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ONCE AGAIN. ALTHOUGH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE WEAK...THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPES UP TO
1000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT A FEW REPORTS OF SEVERE WIND/HAIL ACROSS THIS
LARGE AREA.

..IMY.. 08/16/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.