[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 160057
SWODY1
SPC AC 160055

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 PM CDT SUN AUG 15 2004

VALID 160100Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E
BIS 55 NE MOT 60 NNW TVF 35 SW HIB 40 NNW MKT 40 NW BBW 20 N GLD 35
NE LIC 15 NNW DEN 35 E CDR 20 N ATY 15 E BIS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N FCA BTM 35 ESE
WEY WRL RWL LAR 30 S PHP 20 S ABR BIS 50 NNW MOT ...CONT... 90 E ELO
50 W RHI LNR 45 N CNK ICT 25 SSE CSM MWL 35 S BWD 30 NW DRT
...CONT... 10 W CZZ 25 ESE RAL EDW 40 NW TVL 35 WNW SVE LMT RDM 40 W
YKM 65 WNW 4OM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PFN 25 SW AGS 45 SW
FLO RDU RIC PHL 10 WSW AVP 40 ENE UCA 15 ESE GFL 15 E GON.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ND/MN SWWD INTO CO...

...CENTRAL PLAINS...
WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED IN CENTRAL SD WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING
SWWD INTO EXTREME NERN CO. THIS BOUNDARY PROVIDED THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE
FORCING IS WEAK...VEERING WIND PROFILES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY
SHOULD SUSTAIN A THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND INSTABILITY AXIS ALONG THE KS/CO
BORDER ALSO SUPPORTS STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IN WRN NEB MOVING INTO
NERN CO LATER THIS EVENING.

...ND/MN...
WV IMAGERY INDICATES UPPER LOW...WITH -14 TO -16C 500 MB
TEMPERATURES...WAS LOCATED IN ND THIS EVENING. CLUSTER OF STORMS
WERE LOCATED UNDER THE UPPER LOW AND ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD/DEVELOP
TOWARD CENTRAL MN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SEWD AND LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS. DESPITE THE SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...STEEP
LAPSE RATES...RESULTING IN MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG...AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR STORMS WITH SEVERE HAIL.

...SERN CO/SWRN KS AND OK/TX PANHANDLES...
STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO INITIATE IN THIS AREA...THOUGH PRESENCE OF
WEAK BOUNDARIES AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET MAY AID IN A FEW
STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING HOURS. AMA EVENING SOUNDING WAS
UNSTABLE WITH 2000 J/KG AND THE STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WAS
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...WITH WEAK FORCING...ONLY
ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED...SO ONLY A 5% PROBABILITY FOR HAIL IS
FORECAST.

...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
ALTHOUGH WIND FIELDS ALOFT ARE WEAK...MOIST VERTICAL PROFILES WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED WIND OR SEVERE HAIL
EVENTS. HOWEVER...THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD AID IN THE
STORMS WEAKENING QUICKER TONIGHT THAN THEY DID SATURDAY NIGHT.

..IMY.. 08/16/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.