[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 152001
SWODY1
SPC AC 151958

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT SUN AUG 15 2004

VALID 152000Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW
DVL 25 NNW GFK 10 NE BJI 15 SSE BRD 30 NNW MKT 20 E OTG 20 SE YKN 10
NNE LBF 20 NNE SNY 60 E DGW 40 WNW PIR 20 SSW DVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W CZZ 25 ESE RAL
35 N RAL 10 N EDW 35 ENE BFL 35 WSW TVL 40 NE RBL 25 ENE MHS 20 SE
MFR 50 N MFR 15 NE PDX 25 NE BLI ...CONT... 50 NW HVR 40 S GTF 35 W
WRL 35 ESE RIW 25 WNW RWL 20 ESE RWL 20 NW DGW 60 NE DGW 25 S Y22 25
ESE SDY 70 NW ISN ...CONT... 55 ENE ELO 55 NNE EAU 15 E LSE 55 WNW
LWD 20 S MHK 50 SSE PNC 20 NE ADM 15 NNE FTW 30 SSW SEP 20 NNE JCT
30 NW DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM AQQ 25 E ABY ATL 25
SSW TYS 35 ESE 5I3 30 E PKB 30 SE MIE 30 ENE LAF 25 SE AZO 10 WSW
MTC ...CONT... 20 WSW MSS 15 WNW RUT 15 SSW EWB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...

...NRN PLAINS REGION...
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE MOVING SEWD THROUGH THE PERIOD
AHEAD OF STRONG MID-LEVEL LOW / VORT MAX NOW MOVING SSEWD INTO NRN
ND.  THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG BOUNDARY -- FROM SRN
SD WSWWD INTO SERN WY -- WHERE DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH UPPER
50S TO NEAR 60 DEWPOINTS HAVE ALLOWED 500 TO 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER
CAPE TO DEVELOP.  STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG BOUNDARY
FROM ERN ND SWWD INTO SERN WY / NERN CO AS UPPER FEATURE APPROACHES.
 CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING /
OVERNIGHT FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO PARTS OF MN / IA AND LATER WI AS
LOW-LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION INCREASES. 

ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD FROM SRN SD WSWWD -- WHERE CONVECTION
IS NOW DEVELOPING -- IS RELATIVELY WEAK...A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY
PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.  FURTHER N AND E...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AS JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL FEATURE SPREADS
SEWD.  THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOMEWHAT MORE NUMEROUS
SEVERE REPORTS...THOUGH THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL -- LIMITED BY
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION.

ALTHOUGH STORMS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THE MID MO
/ UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

..GOSS.. 08/15/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.