[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 151631
SWODY1
SPC AC 151629

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CDT SUN AUG 15 2004

VALID 151630Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW
DVL 30 NNW GFK 10 NE BJI BRD 25 NW MKT 25 W SPW 10 NNE LBF 40 SE AIA
20 E CDR 35 N PHP 25 NNE MBG 20 SSW DVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW HVR 40 S GTF 35
W WRL 35 ESE RIW 25 WNW RWL 20 ESE RWL 50 NNW LAR 65 SSE 81V 25 S
Y22 25 ESE SDY 70 NW ISN ...CONT... 55 ENE ELO 55 NNE EAU 15 E LSE
55 WNW LWD 20 S MHK 50 SSE PNC 20 NE ADM 15 NNE FTW 30 SSW SEP 20
NNE JCT 30 NW DRT ...CONT... 10 W CZZ 25 ESE RAL 35 N RAL 10 N EDW
35 ENE BFL 35 WSW TVL 40 NE RBL 25 ENE MHS 20 SE MFR 50 N MFR 15 NE
PDX 25 NE BLI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM AQQ 25 E ABY 30 SSW
ATL 25 NNE CHA 25 ESE LOZ 25 NW HTS 25 NE DAY 30 ENE LAF 20 SSW AZO
15 E DTW ...CONT... 15 W MSS 10 E MPV 20 SSW PWM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS....

...NRN PLAINS...
12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD FROM SRN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA TOWARD
THE DAKOTAS/MN.  IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM...LOW-LEVEL SLY/SWLY
FLOW IS INCREASING FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS NWD/NEWD ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS/MN.  EXPECT BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S TO
SPREAD NEWD AS FAR AS NE SD/WRN MN BY THIS EVENING.  REGIONAL 12Z
SOUNDINGS ALSO REVEALED 7-8 C/KM LAPSE RATES IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...AND A PORTION OF THIS LAPSE RATE PLUME WILL
SPREAD EWD OVER THE SLIGHT RISK AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.  THE
STEEP LAPSE RATES...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...AND DAYTIME
HEATING WILL RESULT IN A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MLCAPE VALUES OF
1000-1500 J/KG FROM NE CO TO SE SD BY THIS EVENING INVOF A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.  

A BROKEN BAND OF ONGOING ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST TODAY
ACROSS ND IN ASSOCIATION WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND
DIFFERENTIAL PVA.  STRONGER SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS SD
WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED AND DAYTIME HEATING/ASCENT ALONG
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WEAKEN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.  STORM COVERAGE
SHOULD THEN INCREASE ACROSS ERN SD INTO WRN MN DURING THE EVENING AS
THE REGION OF STRONGER ASCENT WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVERSPREADS
THE INSTABILITY AXIS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITHIN THE INSTABILITY
AXIS APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SCATTERED
LARGE HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS THIS EVENING...BEFORE THE SEVERE
THREAT GRADUALLY DIMINISHES LATER TONIGHT.

..THOMPSON/CROSBIE.. 08/15/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.