[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 151243
SWODY1
SPC AC 151242

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 AM CDT SUN AUG 15 2004

VALID 151300Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW
DVL 30 NNW GFK 35 NE BJI 40 E BRD 25 NNE FRM 15 S OFK 20 WSW MCK 20
NE AKO 15 WSW BFF 35 SSE RAP 25 NNE MBG 30 SW DVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE ELO 45 W RHI
15 E LSE 10 SW P35 30 ENE CNU 15 NNE MKO 15 E MLC 10 SW DAL 30 SSW
SEP 20 NNE JCT 30 NW DRT ...CONT... 15 WSW CZZ 25 ESE EDW 55 N BFL
25 WSW TVL 25 NNW SVE 30 SSE LMT 20 SE MFR 40 NNW MFR 10 S PDX 45 E
AST 25 S UIL ...CONT... 45 N FCA 3DU 40 NNE WEY 35 W WRL 35 ESE RIW
40 WSW RWL 40 S RWL 40 NW LAR 20 NNW DGW 45 NE 81V 50 NNE REJ 45 E
GDV 25 WNW SDY 60 N OLF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE TLH 25 E ABY 40
E LGC 35 N GAD 60 N CSV 30 NW HTS 25 ENE CMH 40 N CLE ...CONT... 15
W MSS 25 S BTV 20 SSW PWM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN ND/MN INTO NERN CO...

...NRN/CNTRL PLAINS...

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS UPPER VORT MAX AND
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN CANADA...DROPPING SEWD IN LINE
WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.  THIS FEATURE SHOULD MOVE SEWD ACROSS
ERN ND INTO MN LATE IN THE PERIOD AS 30-60M HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION.

STRONG HEATING IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF SFC FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WRN
DAKOTAS BY LATE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN
POTENTIAL SEVERE DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE MARGINAL MOISTURE IN PLACE
ACROSS THIS REGION.  AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES WITHIN WARM
ADVECTION ZONE CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE ERN
DAKOTAS...INITIALLY ROOTED WITHIN/NEAR THE BOUNDARY LAYER.  VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL.  WITH TIME...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME ELEVATED WITHIN
STRONGER ZONE OF ASCENT ACROSS ERN DAKOTAS INTO MN THIS EVENING.

FARTHER SW...SFC FRONT MAY AID IN GENERATING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS
WRN NEB INTO NERN CO.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PROVE ISOLATED...BUT
WITHIN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. THESE
STORMS WOULD PROPAGATE SHARPLY SSWWD DOWN THE HIGH PLAINS ALONG THE
STRONGEST AXIS OF INSTABILITY. HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT WITH THIS CONVECTION.

...PACIFIC NW...

SEVERAL WEAK VORT MAXIMA WILL LIFT NEWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW DURING
THE PERIOD.  THESE FEATURES WILL LOCALLY ENHANCE UPDRAFT POTENTIAL
WITHIN A THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON WHEN LAPSE RATES
SHOULD EXCEED 9 C/KM EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...HOWEVER ACTIVITY
MAY PROVE TOO MARGINAL AND SPARSE TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK.

..DARROW/JEWELL.. 08/15/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.