[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 141952
SWODY1
SPC AC 141950

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0250 PM CDT SAT AUG 14 2004

VALID 142000Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE
BFF 25 ESE AIA 40 SSE GLD 60 SSE EHA 30 NNE TCC 20 NW LVS 25 SW COS
15 SSW CYS 10 NE BFF.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE
ILM 20 W GSB 10 ESE RIC 30 ENE BWI 25 NNW EWR 20 S BDL 15 WSW HYA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W CZZ 20 ENE RAL
25 NW RAL 30 NNW LAX 20 NNW OXR 40 SSW BFL 25 SE BFL 55 ESE FAT 20
SSW TVL 25 S MHS 45 NW MHS 25 W MFR 35 E OTH 25 N OTH ...CONT... 35
NNE 63S 25 NE GEG 40 ENE LWS 40 ESE S80 50 W COD 10 N BPI 30 SSE DPG
55 NNE BCE MTJ 40 W LAR 50 WSW RAP 30 W PIR 20 WNW MHE 15 SSE OFK 15
SE ICT 30 N OKC 40 SW DUA 35 W TPL 15 E HDO 25 S CRP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE RRT 45 NNE GFK
40 WNW DVL 10 NE ISN 35 N OLF 50 NNW GGW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE PFN 15 N ABY 15
N AHN 40 W GSO 25 SSW SHD 35 WSW DCA ABE 30 SE MSV BDL 25 SE BOS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SRN HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN NC THROUGH THE
COASTAL MID ATLANTIC AREA...

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

THIS AFTERNOON SCATTERED STORMS WERE IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS INCLUDING THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CO AND NM AS WELL AS ALONG SEVERAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES.
SURFACE HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
BELOW MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE FROM
1000 TO 1500 J/KG. PRESENCE OF LEE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN SELY LOW
LEVEL FLOW BELOW NWLY FLOW OF 20-30 KT AT 6 KM... CONTRIBUTING TO
SUFFICIENT 0-6 KM SHEAR FOR UPDRAFTS TO ROTATE. PRIMARY THREAT WILL
BE FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH MID
EVENING AS STORMS MOVE SSEWD.


...NERN NC THROUGH MID ATLANTIC AREA AND SRN PARTS OF NE U.S...

REMNANTS OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WILL ACCELERATE NEWD TONIGHT THROUGH
THE MID ATLANTIC AREA. STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES ON THE NERN
QUADRANT OF THIS STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THREAT FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES OVERNIGHT. ONCE THE CENTER MOVES N OF NC...PRIMARY THREAT
WILL BE NEAR COSTAL AREAS OF THE MID ATLANTIC OR JUST OFFSHORE TO
THE E OF THE PROJECTED TRACK OF THE CENTER. LATE TONIGHT CHARLEY
SHOULD MOVE INTO PARTS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MARGINAL INSTABILITY. SEE LATEST DISCUSSIONS
FROM NHC FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON CHARLEY.

..DIAL.. 08/14/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.