[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 150050
SWODY1
SPC AC 150048

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 PM CDT SAT AUG 14 2004

VALID 150100Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE
AKO 10 WSW GLD 40 SSE GLD 20 W CDS 10 ENE LBB 35 NE CVS LHX LIC 25
SE AKO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W CZZ 35 W TRM 10
S PMD 30 E BFL 55 ESE FAT 20 SSW TVL MHS MFR 35 E OTH 15 SSW AST
...CONT... 35 NNE 63S 25 NE GEG 40 ENE LWS 35 ESE S80 55 ESE WEY 40
SW COD RIW 35 WNW RKS EVW 10 S OGD 35 NNE U24 4HV 45 S MTJ GUC 20
NNE 4FC 20 NE LAR 45 WSW CDR 50 WNW VTN VTN BUB 45 NNE HLC HLC DDC
GAG LTS SJT 45 ESE P07.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE PFN MCN 45 SSE
AND 10 E CLT 30 W RDU 55 N RWI RIC 35 NNE RIC BWI ABE 30 SE MSV BDL
25 SE BOS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE DVL 55 WNW MOT
35 N OLF 50 NNW GGW.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EARLY THIS EVE ACROSS PARTS OF
THE S CNTRL HIGH PLAINS....

...EASTERN SEABOARD...
CIRCULATION CENTER OF CHARLEY IS MIGRATING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
VIRGINIA COAST...AND APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE NORTH NORTHEASTWARD
TRACK NEAR NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. FURTHER WEAKENING WILL OCCUR IN SLIGHTLY COOLER/LESS MOIST
AND SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...AHEAD OF LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WHICH REMAINS
CENTERED ALONG AN AXIS NEAR/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  TROPICAL
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LONG ISLAND/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY...WITH AT LEAST LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR DAMAGING
WIND GUST IN STRONGEST CONVECTION.

WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL UPSTREAM...SURFACE FRONT HAS REMAINED
QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS/GEORGIA AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS EAST OF FRONT HAS
SUPPORTED EXTENSIVE CONVECTION ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH
NEWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND CENTRAL/EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA.  FLORIDA STORMS ARE ALREADY WINDING DOWN...AND ACTIVITY TO
THE NORTH SHOULD DO LIKEWISE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS BOUNDARY
LAYER BEGINS TO COOL/STABILIZE WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

...WESTERN/CENTRAL STATES...
MODERATELY STRONG SHEAR BENEATH NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME HAS ENHANCED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS ARE ONGOING...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY
THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING.  

ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ALSO APPEARS TO BE
MOSTLY DIURNAL IN NATURE.  WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST /ROTATING AROUND NORTHEAST PACIFIC CLOSED
LOW/...STORMS IN THE LEE OF THE OREGON CASCADES MAY BE SLOWEST TO
WEAKEN.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY POSE RISK OF ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS THROUGH
03-04Z IN ENVIRONMENT WHERE VERY DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER HAS
DEVELOP WITH STRONG HEATING.

**FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION CONCERNING ONOING OR IMMINENT
CONVECTIVE THREATS PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS
/SPCSWOMCD/.

..KERR.. 08/15/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.